SOME THOUGHTS ON $PUMP TGE AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR $BONK AND BONKFUN ECO

i’ve had several people ask for my thoughts on the Pumpfun TGE and launch of their $PUMP token since this is currently the most anticipated TGE event in a very long time, and many are starting to make parallels to BonkFun due to how much it has been in the spotlight since flipping Pumpfun, i figured i should articulate my thoughts

here’s what i know so far about the PUMP token

• they’ve apparently raised $1 billion at a $4 billion valuation

• prediction and OTC markets are valuing the token at $7 billion to $8 billion post-TGE, and some trading desks are valuing it as high as $10 billion

so what does this mean for $BONK, BonkFun eco, and most importantly the trenches and the memecoin market in general?

i have made a couple comments on X in the past that i think the PUMP token is easily worth the $4 billion valuation funds are being raised at

and i also said it is an easy top 10 - 15 crypto projects

these comments were made at the time based on historical and projected Pumpfun revenue relative to other crypto valuations

i didn’t envision BonkFun flipping Pumpfun this fast and aggressively at the time of those comments

that said, here are my updated thoughts:

1. i do not think Pumpfun is done by any stretch, but i think BonkFun likely continues to be the industry leader for the foreseeable future**

for the following reasons:

• BonkFun’s pro-creator/pro-people/pro-Solana eco alignment is a massive strength

• the strong culture of support within the BONK ecosystem, which is trickling down to coins launched on BonkFun, is something that is incredibly hard to replicate by anybody else very quickly

• Pumpfun had a lot of momentum as a tokenless protocol, especially with a TGE and potential airdrop looming. yet it got flipped hard days/weeks to TGE. it’s hard to see it sustainably recover the kind of market share it used to after TGE

• while all launchpads are plagued with bot problems, i want to believe that a non-negligible amount of activity on Pumpfun is coming from power users and bots that have been transacting to actively farm the airdrop whenever it happens. i mean, Pumpfun was crypto’s most profitable protocol for a long time, so this is expected. i think this kind of activity should slow down or stop after TGE since incentive has ended - the above makes Bonkfun’s growth even more impressive! it’s growth has been purely organic and driven by alignment with the Solana ecosystem, without promises or expectations of any token or incentives since the $BONK token exists prior to its launch and it has always been clear that fees will go towards buying and burning BONK - it is also worth noting that a lot of BonkFun’s growth is coming from its rapidly increasing global adoption due to its cultural association with important communities, e.g. with China massively embracing it as the top launchpad there and flocking to Solana + launching a record number of coins on it vs any other blockchain, and this is one area BonkFun excels and continues to growth… and an area that i think many have so far taken for granted

and this doesn’t even take into account certain strategic moves that BonkFun could be making in the foreseeable future

overall i think BonkFun is strategically positioned to lead the launchpad sector well into the future, God willing!

i mean, yeah Pumpfun could make interesting announcements to try to recapture market share leading to their TGE… but i think its effect would be short-lived even if that were to happen

2. the PUMP TGE is a bullish catalyst for $BONK, BonkFun and BonkFun eco

many have been promoting the idea of the imminent PUMP TGE as a liquidity suck event for the trenches, top memecoins, and the BonkFun eco

while this might have been the case if the TGE had happened 1 - 2 weeks ago, i don’t think it will be the case going forward

BonkFun flipping Pumpfun this decisively so close to its TGE would tame animal spirits for the PUMP token and prevent a memecoin/trenches liquidity suck event since it makes no sense to be going all in dumping conviction plays to ape into it considering the backdrop of recent events

3. it’s going to become increasingly clear that the real PUMP TGE trade now is $BONK and BonkFun eco…

while the $PUMP tokenomics is still very opaque and there isn’t a lot of visibility into what it looks like

we know for sure that 50% of BonkFun fees is used to buy AND burn $BONK tokens

and we know for sure that a total of 58% of BonkFun fees goes towards buying BONK tokens in some capacity

i do not know what the final PUMP tokenomics will look like

but i’m struggling to see how it can be more competitive than what BonkFun has at the moment especially when you consider the fact that Pumpfun raised $1 billion at $4 billion valuation despite being an extremely profitable business (they made almost $1 billion in the past 1.5 years!) i think the PUMP TGE trade is BONK and BonkFun eco:

if PUMP raised at $4 billion and is valued by as much as $10 billion by third-parties, then how much should BONK be worth considering its recent market dominance and potential for sustained future dominance?

even more so when you consider the fact that BonkFun is just one of many ecosystem products that add buy and burn pressure to $BONK

BONK definitely looks incredibly undervalued at its current market cap of $1.8 billion and if i were an objective investor, i would believe that there is more ROI on buying BONK at $1.8b than buying PUMP at $4b or higher in the current environment i will also think that BonkFun eco catches a lot more bids and reprice aggressively higher in light of the current situation of things

and that’s not even accounting for the fact that Pumpfun could lose a lot more momentum and market share to BonkFun once its TGE is out of the way

4. BonkFun’s sustained dominance is very bullish for the memecoin market and the trenches

a major reason why many in the industry rallied hard behind BonkFun and against Pumpfun is due to how ‘extractive’ they are considered to have been

and this reputation for being ‘extractive’ is mostly fueled by how much $SOL they have sold and continue to sell (i.e. to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars!)

the success of memecoins and on-chain activity is strongly correlated with the price of the native token on a blockchain i.e. SOL on the Solana chain

if SOL prices continue to go up, or be more relatively stable, then this bodes well for the trenches and on-chain since there will be a higher appetite for people to play in the memecoin casino

this means major memecoin prices hold up better, newer launches and low caps have a higher floor, and people as a result create a lot more memecoins and narrative

and everything aligns for BonkFun as far as this is concerned:

• 15% of all fees generated by BonkFun is staked in the form of $SOL in the BONKSol validator, so not only is BonkFun reducing SOL sell pressure… but it is actually contributing to securing the Solana network by staking a lot of tokens as a validator

• 58% of all fees generated goes towards buying $BONK. anyone familiar with the memecoin game knows that ‘dogs move in packs’ i.e. having one strong memecoin that keeps pumping hard will carry other large caps with it and fuel degen appetite, resulting in the launch of a lot more new memecoins and narratives

so, in this case, you have a combo of less SOL being dumped + more aggressive buys and burns that keep pumping $BONK to insane valuations

and the more this happens, the more active and degenerate the trenches get… which creates a kind of flywheel or cycle of this

you can call it a ‘bonkwheel’ or a ‘bonkcycle’ or whatever… but you get the idea!

i don’t know how best to put this, but there is no way to overstate the fact that BonkFun coming out of this the clear, ultimate, decisive winner is in the best interests of the trenches and memecoins in general… even if you do not hold a single token within the BonkFun eco

to conclude…

BonkFun’s recent success had ensured one thing: the PUMP TGE, a highly anticipated event that many considered scary and a potential drain or ‘local top’ for memecoins and the trenches, has turned into a potentially positive catalyst for the trenches due to how much will be flowing into BONK and BonkFun eco leading to and after their TGE

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