Raking in $730 million — is pump.fun the last leg for MeMe in issuing coins?

Question

Author: SuperEx; Translated by: Baihua Blockchain

Recently, the so-called "Meme Engine" Pump.fun on Solana has once again stirred up waves in the market. Rumors about its upcoming token have triggered strong risk aversion in the already fragile on-chain ecosystem. Some call it a new benchmark for attention economy; others label it as the "number one toxic asset" in the Solana ecosystem.

So, is Pump.fun an untamed dark horse or the final carnival of the cryptocurrency FOMO culture? The uproar surrounding this token launch may be the ultimate test of its true value.

What Happened: The Hot Discussion on the Launch of Pump.fun Token

Here's the thing: According to reports, Pump.fun plans to raise $1 billion through public and private token sales, with a valuation of up to $4 billion. This news has caused a stir in the Solana ecosystem, leading to a surge in risk-averse behavior. While the official announcement has not confirmed a specific issuance date, hints on their social accounts suggest that there may be movement "within two weeks" — which is consistent with their previous statements.

In fact, this is not the first attempt by Pump.fun to launch a token. As early as February this year, they considered conducting a Dutch auction, but at that time, Trump and his wife launched their own MemeCoin, attracting all the attention and liquidity, and Pump.fun had to temporarily shelve their plans. Now, although the market has slightly rebounded, it has not yet returned to its peak momentum. So, will this token issuance be successful? This is not something we can easily judge — it needs to be viewed from the market's perspective.

1-1 Cold hard data

As of June 4th, Pump.fun's cumulative revenue has exceeded $730 million. Sounds impressive, right? But hold on—since February, its daily revenue has significantly dropped from nearly $15 million at peak times to just a few million dollars, actually reducing by half.

1-2 Trading Volume

At the end of 2024, Pump.fun's weekly trading volume reached a record high of $3.3 billion. Nowadays, even achieving a weekly trading volume of $1 billion is worth celebrating. In short, liquidity and user activity have severely dwindled after the initial "boom."

What is even more worrying is that the number of tokens created daily has decreased from a peak of 70,000 to about 30,000. What does this indicate? Users' interest in this "dice" game is waning.

1-3 Who is really making money?

Pump.fun seems to be a fast track to financial freedom, but the reality is far less optimistic. According to Dune data, there were about 594,000 active wallets in May:

Only 3.6% of users made a profit of over $500;
Only 0.1% of users earned over $10,000;
Only 27 wallets (about 0.0045%) made a net profit of over $100,000.

At the same time, 52.5% of users lost money, with some even losing over 1 million dollars.

The logic is simple: the vast majority of users are the "exit liquidity" of a handful of winners – just like casinos, where everyone thinks they're going to win, but most of them end up losing.

02 Solana Faces Risk Aversion Withdrawal

As rumors about the Pump.fun token intensify, losses are being recorded across the Solana network. According to Artemis data, Solana ranks third among all blockchains in terms of net capital outflow.

Essentially, the token plan of Pump.fun is seen as an upcoming liquidity black hole — the market is responding accordingly.

The Controversy of the 4 Billion Dollar Valuation

What is the most controversial issue? That is the astonishing $4 billion valuation. In comparison, Yuga Labs had a valuation comparable to this when the APE token was launched. So, how can Pump.fun prove that such a high valuation is justified?

Cryptocurrency researcher @Haotian pointed out mercilessly that this valuation "is severely overestimated." He raised four points of criticism:

Attention monetization is a short-term game: built on FOMO and speculation, lacking long-term fundamental support.
There is no real moat: a new Solana application can easily replace it.
Over-engineering harms the Meme spirit: culture relies on simplicity—too many features can stifle its appeal.
Valuation incentives harm innovation: When monetization of traffic takes precedence over genuine technology, cryptocurrencies deviate from their original intent.

Another KOL @xingpt pointed out that Pump.fun's 30-day annualized revenue is 77.98 million USD. With a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of 5 billion USD, its FDV/revenue ratio is about 64 - which is quite a high number. In contrast, DeFi blue-chip projects like Raydium and PancakeSwap have more stable profits, but their valuations are more conservative, highlighting the high risk of Pump.fun.

04 But not everyone is bearish

There are also supporters speaking out. KOL @CryptoV believes that Pump.fun has played a key role in making Solana the main battlefield for on-chain activities. It addresses the full-stack issue from zero liquidity to centralized exchange (CEX) listings—like the iPhone of on-chain. He believes that Pump.fun has captured the two key indicators of attention economy: liquidity and screen time.

He also pointed out that, based on a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of only 5, Pump.fun might actually be a value investment. No airdrops, no internal games—just pure product-driven traction. From this perspective, it is more stable than many hype-driven projects.

05 Summary

At first glance, the token plan of Pump.fun might just be another market hype event. But beneath the surface lies a deeper struggle of cryptocurrency ideology: value systems, valuation models, attention economy, and sustainability.

In the short term, the project may still trigger a brief wave of excitement. However, in the long run, whether this FOMO-driven business model can establish a true defensive capability remains to be seen. If it successfully builds a complete Meme ecosystem through this token issuance, it may indeed deserve the title of "on-chain iPhone." But if this is just the final exit from the craze, what it leaves behind may be nothing but devastation.

The next few weeks are crucial. This is not just a token issuance—it is also a live experiment of the on-chain attention economy mechanism.