The price of XRP will reach $25 if the ETF is approved, then it will fall 90%.

Ripple (XRP) has bounced back from losses from Wednesday to Friday and is fluctuating around $2.26, an increase of 9.7% compared to the local bottom of $2.06.

Analysts say this altcoin could break into double digits amid increasing optimism about the likelihood that the XRP spot ETF will be approved in 2025.

The probability of XRP ETF approval soars to 98%

According to data from Polymarket, the likelihood of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving the XRP spot ETF in 2025 has skyrocketed to 98% on Tuesday.

! XRP ETF Approval Rate on Polymarket | Source: PolymarketMany XRP spot ETF registrations from "giants" such as Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and 21Shares have increased pressure on the SEC, indicating strong demand for legally regulated XRP investment products.

The launch of the XRP Futures ETF by CME Group on May 19, with a first-day trading volume of 19 million dollars, has demonstrated the maturity of the market and the interest from institutions, thereby easing some of the SEC's concerns about regulated derivative markets.

In addition, three companies from various sectors have announced plans to invest over 471 million dollars into the XRP treasury, notably Webus International filing with the SEC to establish a strategic reserve fund worth 300 million dollars in XRP – further strengthening the evidence of corporate-level acceptance and growing trust from institutions.

These factors, along with Ripple's legal clarity after the SEC withdrew its lawsuit in March, have significantly improved market sentiment.

Although the SEC is still delaying the processing of applications, the success of the XRP futures market on CME and the strategies of large corporations have caused the probability of approval on Polymarket to increase from 68% in April to 98% in early June — reflecting expectations that these funds will be approved before December 31.

Approved ETFs will unlock capital flow from institutions, driving demand for XRP and potentially pushing prices up sharply – some analysts even predict that XRP could reach $50 if big names like BlackRock enter the market.

Analysts predict XRP price could surpass 25 dollars

The price of XRP has been capped below the $3 threshold since February 1, but analysts believe that this coin could bounce back strongly from the current level, reaching a target of up to $25 or higher.

According to market analyst Egrag Crypto, the price of XRP is "heading towards double digits" in 2025.

Based on the analysis of "The Guardian Arch", Egrag predicts that the price of XRP could rise to $20 and even peak at $27, based on past price patterns and timelines.

This analysis uses the correlation between the (EMA 21) 21-week exponential moving average and the (SMA 33) 33-week simple moving average as key indicators to identify potential pivot points.

The analysis also notes the bullish flag pattern on the monthly timeframe, indicating that the upward trend could continue to the $20 area, before dropping sharply by about 86% back to $3 in the next bear market.

"The measurement target indicates that the price could reach $20, but I believe that the next bullish phase will be very fierce and could drop sharply like the bear market in 2021 – around 86%. That could bring XRP down to about $3 if it peaks at $27."

XRP Price Chart Monthly | Source: Egrag CryptoAnalyst Jaydee_757 also agrees with the above statement, saying that XRP's current technical setup is similar to the "2017 hidden bullish divergence" on the weekly timeframe.

Jaydee_757 explained that the hidden bullish divergence in 2017 led to a 20-fold price increase, as the price of XRP rose from approximately $0.0055 to a historic peak of over $3.4.

If the 2017 scenario repeats itself, this price rally could help XRP soar to $25 or more, which is an increase of over 1,000% compared to the current price.

However, Jaydee_757 also warns that this sharp increase could lead to a 90% price drop in a bear market, implying that $25 could be the peak of XRP's bull cycle in 2025.

"There is currently a similar structure! A divine surge up to $25, then a historical collapse."

XRP Weekly Price Chart | Source: Jaydee_757Những this analysis is in line with previous predictions that XRP could reach $27, based on fractal patterns on the chart, Elliott wave analysis, and extended Fibonacci waves.

Dinh Dinh