Bitcoin is currently valued at a low price, Bitwise stated: 'The fair price' today is $230,000.

Bitcoin is once again knocking on the door to explore the price, but researchers at Bitwise Asset Management argue that spot quotes still underestimate the value of the network. In the Week 24 Crypto Market Compass released late Tuesday, Dr. André Dragosch, Bitwise's Head of European Research and analyst Ayush Tripathi calculated that "quantitative models estimate Bitcoin's hypothetical 'fair value' in the context of the current sovereign default probability of around $230,000 today." This implies the premium is just over 110 percent above the market price, which is hovering near $109,600 at the time of press coverage on June 11, 2025. The true value of Bitcoin is booming. Dragosch links that assessment to the price increase in national risk mitigation measures. The one-year credit default swap spread of the United States is trading near half a percentage point—the level last seen during the debt ceiling fears of 2023—reflecting "broader concerns about the U.S. financial deficit," Reuters reported last week. "Bitcoin can provide an alternative 'portfolio insurance' against widespread national default as a decentralized, scarce, and counterparty risk-free asset," the argument notes, while adding that the net interest cost projected by the Congressional Budget Office is expected to triple the cost of U.S. debt service to approximately $3 trillion by 2030. However, the macro context is not the only pillar supporting Bitwise's call for fair value. The company's internal cryptocurrency sentiment index shows that twelve out of fifteen market breadth measures are trending upwards, while the cross-asset risk appetite index (CARA) compiled from stocks, credit, interest rates, and commodities has soared to its highest level in five years. Dragosch stated that "Both the cryptocurrency asset sentiment and cross-asset sentiment are currently rising decisively," noting that Bitcoin's rebound above $110,000 brings it within two percent of the all-time high of nearly $112,000 set in May. On-chain data remains constructive. Exchange reserves have decreased to 2.91 million BTC—about 14.6 percent of the circulating supply—after whales withdrew approximately 390,632 BTC last week. At the same time, the net outflow from the exchange has slowed to about $0.53 billion from $1.78 billion the previous week, indicating lighter profit-taking pressure. The derivative position reflects the resilience of the spot market. The total open Bitcoin futures contracts increased by 2,200 BTC across various venues, while the CME branch rose by 6.4 thousand BTC. The funding rate for perpetual swap contracts remains generally positive, although it turned negative in some parts of the weekend, and the annualized three-month basis holds at around 6.3 percent. In options, open contracts increased by an additional 27,300 BTC, with a stable put-to-call ratio of 0.55; the 25 delta one-month skew remains modestly negative, implying continued demand for downside risk hedges even as actual volatility decreases to 28.2 percent. The cash flow of institutions is reinforcing the bullish trend. Global cryptocurrency ETPs absorbed $488.5 million last week, of which $254.9 million flowed into Bitcoin products. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs led with $525 million in cash inflows, balanced by a $24.1 million weekly outflow from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Bitwise's own BITB tool has attracted $78.1 million, while the company's European physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) has only seen negligible outflows. Ethereum products have also enjoyed a net inflow of $260.9 million, maintaining a wide risk bid price. Bitwise acknowledged that headline risk could still cause a sharp, short-term decline—last week's altercation between Elon Musk and President Donald Trump pushed BTC back to $100,000 in the short term—but saw structural forces tilt strongly to the upside. Dragosch wrote that "U.S. economic policy uncertainty is most likely past its peak and continues to decline in a margin," pointing to nonfarm payroll growth of 139,000 in May and a correction in the recession rate. With Bitcoin outperforming traditional assets this year and the cross-asset sentiment currently being confirmed by Bitwise's indicators, analysts argue that the market is beginning to price assets less as a speculative vehicle and more as a macro hedge. Whether traders accept a fair value of $230,000 depends on similar variables highlighted in the notes—country risk premiums, policy uncertainty, and the pace of institutional adoption—but they say the fundamentals can be seen on-chain, on the desk, and in the traffic data. "Bitcoin has also reclaimed $110,000 and is nearing the previous all-time high," the report reminds readers. For Bitwise, that near level is not a stopping point but a staging area: they conclude that the intrinsic value of this currency asset lies "significantly further north."