Dialogue with a ten-year-old sucker: Is the market going crazy? Or is it the last madness?

Today let's talk about something exciting — the question that has been on everyone's mind lately: "Is the market really going crazy, or is this just the final frenzy?" To discuss this matter thoroughly, we have specially invited Mr. 10007, a prominent figure from AiCoin Dynamic Square.

Let me introduce this大神 to the new friends first: he is one of the earliest users on our platform, a true industry OG, not only does he have a clear understanding of the secondary market, but he is also very sharp when it comes to news. Below are the Q&A for this live broadcast:

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Host: Teacher, after struggling in the industry for so long, can you talk about the insights you've gained from your past experiences? 10007 Teacher: When I first entered the industry, I understood that the biggest pitfall in the early days was "unreliable platforms." Later, during the ICO bull market in 2017, it was outrageous — you could just put together a white paper and draw a big pie, and easily raise tens of millions; everywhere there were legends of hundredfold and thousandfold coins, money seemed to come in like a strong wind. But when the tide went out, the truth was revealed; 99% were worthless tokens, leaving a mess behind. That wave taught me: relying solely on storytelling and hype cannot stand firm; in the end, it all comes down to whether something has actual value. More recently, from 2020 to 2021, this round was much more advanced. After DeFi emerged, people realized that crypto could not only be traded but could also be used for real lending and wealth management; moreover, big institutions on Wall Street began to buy Bitcoin with real money — this indicates that the industry started to "enter the mainstream." Of course, later on, the bubbles in NFTs and blockchain games were also significant, but this round made me see clearly: technological innovation and the entry of legitimate players are the core driving forces pushing the industry forward. Each cycle of change is accompanied by the industry's upgrades and innovations.

Host: So what do you think the market is currently in terms of cycle stage? 10007 Teacher: I think it resembles more of a "mid-game break in a bull market," or the early stage of a "slow bull." Why do I say this? On one hand, the good news is tangible - the Bitcoin spot ETF has been approved, which essentially opens the door for Wall Street's regular forces to come in and buy continuously, something that was unimaginable before. But on the other hand, everyone feels uncertain: the global economic trend is unclear, and the question of whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates still hangs in the balance; within the industry, people are constantly shouting about AI + Web3, and RWA, yet there hasn't been a new explosive point that excites everyone like DeFi did back in the day. That's why the market is so conflicted, fluctuating up two days and down one day, unlike a frenzied bull market that charges straight up.

Host: What new changes are there in this round compared to the previous cycle? 10007 Teacher: The changes are huge, it's completely a different way to play! First, the players have changed. In the last round, it was mainly retail investors having fun by themselves, but now the main players are Wall Street institutions. They buy through ETFs, which provides a continuous and stable buying pressure, unlike us retail investors who are prone to chasing highs and cutting losses, so the market foundation has become more stable. Second, the gameplay has changed. Now there are far more people trading contracts than there are trading spot. Many times, the market's rise and fall is driven by contracts battling each other, leading to mutual liquidation, resulting in greater and more exciting short-term fluctuations. Thirdly, the story has changed. The last round was about new applications in the industry like DeFi and NFTs; this round is bigger — Bitcoin is recognized by the mainstream as "digital gold," and everyone is considering moving real-world assets onto the blockchain. Finally, the regulation has changed. In the past, there was no supervision during the rampant growth, but now the whole world is watching, and the rules are becoming clearer. In the short term, it seems like a constraint, but in the long run, it paves the way for the industry, allowing more big money to come in with confidence.

Host: Back to the core issue, is it "insane slaughter" or "the final madness"? 10007 Teacher: My answer is very simple: neither crazy, nor far from the end. Saying "killing it" is just scaring oneself. Although some altcoins and meme coins are flying around, the market is steadily being pulled by Bitcoin, step by step. Where's the money coming from? Mainly from ETFs, it's crystal clear. Plus, the market leverage isn't as exaggerated as in 2021, and it hasn't reached the stage where "you can make money with your eyes closed." It's an understatement to say "the final madness." A bull market reaches its peak when everyone thinks it will keep rising, even the aunties at the vegetable market rush in. Aren't people still quite cautious now? Moreover, the ETF faucet has just been opened, and there’s plenty of water to come. So don't panic; this is just the warm-up stage, and everyone is gathering strength for the next big opportunity.

Anchor: Finally, can you give some advice to the friends in the live stream? 10007 Teacher: To new friends: Don't get too excited! Don't listen to people saying which coin can increase a hundred times and go all in; take the time to understand what Bitcoin and Ethereum are first. Invest steadily, buy in batches to average your cost - in this circle, longevity is the hard truth. To veteran players: It's time to test your vision and composure. You need to keep an eye on new tracks and new gameplay without missing out. Even if you make money, you must know when to take a step back and sell in batches to secure your gains. Don't always aim to sell at the highest point; no one can achieve that. Moreover, don't rely on experiences from the last round to dictate this round; that approach will lead to failure. To everyone: The most important thing is to "believe in the cycle." The market has its ups and downs, just like the four seasons. A bull market is for harvesting, while a bear market is for sowing. Those who can laugh last are not the ones who have caught countless hundred-fold coins, but those who maintain a calm mind, endure the winter, and wait for spring.

After listening to so much valuable content, everyone must have gained a lot! Our next "Crypto Talk" AMA live stream is scheduled for August 27th at 15:00, same time, same place, let's not miss it!

This article only represents the author's personal views and does not represent the position or views of this platform. This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.