The "perfect storm" for the altcoin season is gathering - will Pi Network be the "big unknown"?

The crypto market may be preparing for one of the most dynamic periods in recent years. Analysts and traders alike increasingly point to October as a critical milestone, with the potential to trigger the long-awaited "altcoin season" – a phase where altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin.

This is not just based on vague expectations, but stems from the convergence of many key factors: the final decision from the (SEC) regarding the spot XRP ETF filings, the dominance of Bitcoin is gradually stabilizing, along with strong liquidity across the entire digital asset market. When combined, these factors can create what is known as the "perfect storm" for the altcoin boom.

ETF XRP – The "Wild Card" That Could Change the Game

At the beginning of 2024, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETF funds by the (SEC) has become a historic turning point, officially bringing cryptocurrency into the legitimization orbit in the eyes of traditional financial institutions. This event not only creates new capital flows but also reinforces the belief that digital assets have entered a more mature phase, where oversight and regulation are seen as driving factors rather than hindrances. Shortly after, Ethereum also received a spot ETF, further affirming the view that ETF products could become a "mainstream gateway" for large capital flows from Wall Street and institutional investors to pour into the market.

Currently, the spotlight is back on XRP. After several delays, the deadline for the SEC's decision on the XRP ETF usually falls around mid or late October. If the regulator gives the green light, the impact could be revolutionary for the entire cryptocurrency industry.

First, institutional capital will be strongly activated, as an XRP ETF will allow Wall Street investors to access XRP directly without going through an exchange, opening up the potential to attract billions of USD in new liquidity.

Secondly, this event could contribute to the diminishing dominance of Bitcoin; history has repeatedly shown that when capital begins to shift towards altcoins, it is often a sign that the strong growth season for alternative coins is about to begin.

Finally, the approval of the XRP ETF will also create a legal ripple effect, paving the way for similar ETF products based on Solana, Cardano, or even DeFi tokens, thereby significantly expanding the application space and attracting institutions to participate more deeply in the market.

It is not a coincidence that in a recent report, analysts at Bernstein emphasized: "The era of ETFs is expanding, and each new approval contributes to reducing instability in the crypto market." In other words, the XRP ETF could be the "wild card" that is a turning point, not only changing the position of XRP itself but also reshaping the entire landscape of the altcoin market in the near future.

The conditions are ripe for the "altcoin season"

The ETF XRP is just one piece of the puzzle in the overall picture, as there are many other factors concurrently reinforcing the explosive outlook for altcoins. First of all, market sentiment has changed significantly. After Bitcoin established a new peak this year, many investors began to shift their appetite toward higher-risk assets with greater potential returns – and altcoins have become the ideal choice to meet that demand.

Along with the shift in mindset, the cash flow in the market remains abundant. ETF funds continuously attract capital, while new money continues to flow into the cryptocurrency sector, creating the necessary support to maintain the upward momentum. This is different from previous cycles, when the lack of liquidity often caused altcoins to easily decline right after a hot surge.

The most noteworthy point is that the altcoin ecosystem has now matured significantly. During the bear market, many projects have quietly developed products, refined technology, and expanded real-world applications. As a result, many altcoins are no longer just "ideas on paper" but are truly ready to explode once the capital flow returns.

According to the familiar rule of the crypto market, Bitcoin is always the "wave leader": rising sharply in the early stages, then gradually slowing down, allowing funds to shift to altcoin. If October brings positive news – such as the SEC approving one or more ETFs, especially the XRP ETF – history shows that the scenario of "Bitcoin leading the wave, altcoin exploding" could certainly repeat itself. And at that time, an altcoin season that the community has been waiting for for many years will officially kick off.

Pi Network – "The Big Unknown" in the Altcoin Wave

While most altcoins have been listed and traded publicly on the global market, Pi Network remains a rare exception. This project is built on a closed mainnet, operated and controlled by the community. Therefore, the true value of Pi has not yet been publicly disclosed. The launch event of Open Mainnet – which the community has long awaited – is seen as a historic milestone that could take Pi out of the "testing phase" and officially into the spotlight of the global cryptocurrency market.

If the "altcoin season" explodes as predicted in October, Pi will have a unique opportunity to take advantage. First of all, the FOMO effect could spread strongly, as the excitement of the entire market amplifies expectations around Pi, attracting millions of new traders. Next, in the context of a warming market, major exchanges often tend to accelerate the listing of names that are drawing attention, and Pi could very well become a top candidate. This not only increases liquidity but also helps shape the initial public price of the coin. Finally, if Pi launches at the right moment when altcoins enter a strong growth phase, the project will possess a unique advantage: the story of "a major coin emerging during a boom season" – a psychologically impactful factor that can easily motivate both the community and speculators.

PI price chart 1 day | Source: TradingViewFrom a market perspective, analysts often divide the price outlook for Pi into three distinct scenarios when the mainnet opens:

• Optimistic scenario: If Pi is widely listed, the community strongly supports it, and demand surges, the starting price could easily fluctuate around 10–12 USD, even being likened to a "new Ethereum moment."
• Basic scenario: If the application process develops steadily but is less hyped, Pi has the potential to maintain its price in the range of 2–10 USD, thereby establishing its position among mid-cap altcoins.
• Pessimistic scenario: If the project faces technical delays, slow ecosystem development, or a lack of trust from the community, the price of Pi may only fluctuate between 0.5–2 USD, at least until the practical utility is proven.

In summary, the long-term value of Pi will not only depend on short-term speculative waves but will lie in the ability to build an effective ecosystem that is rich in utility and has sustainable liquidity. However, in the context of a vibrant market and the likelihood of an "altcoin season" starting in October, Pi may be standing in front of the "perfect stage" to make the launch that the community has been looking forward to for many years.

October could also become a significant turning point for the entire crypto market. If the SEC approves one or more XRP ETFs, a wave of new institutional capital could flood in, opening up a strong growth era for altcoins. Combined with the bullish sentiment and abundant liquidity, this could very well be the starting point for an altcoin cycle lasting until 2025.

In that picture, Pi Network has a golden opportunity to step into the spotlight. However, the true success of Pi will not only be determined by timing, but also by the ability to deploy technology, expand practical utilities, and maintain community appeal.

No matter how promising the prospects may be, the cryptocurrency market always contains inherent uncertainty. Those who want to take advantage of the upcoming wave need to prepare for both growth opportunities and unpredictable fluctuations – for it is this uncertainty that is the true nature of crypto.

Emma