Viewpoint: Will the Crypto Assets 4-year cycle be restructured? Institutional entry may extend the bull run until 2026.

The four-year cycle of cryptocurrencies is the historical norm, but fundamental shifts such as institutional entry, regulatory frameworks, and macroeconomics could disrupt old patterns and extend the current bull cycle into 2026. This article is derived from an article written by Aylo and compiled, compiled and written by TechFlow. (Executive Summary: Rate Cuts, DATs and Selling Tides, Is the Crypto Bull Market Peaking or Still Halfway Through?) (Background supplement: Breaking $100,000 for 100 days but no one cares, why is there less retail investors in this round of bitcoin bull market?) First, it's almost impossible for you to sell at the apex of the cycle. I can't do it and I won't try to do it. Cycle vertices usually appear in short-period trading charts (LTFs) and occur very quickly, often becoming apparent only when they manifest themselves in long-period trading chart (HTFs). Day traders who focus on short-cycle trading may catch the apex of the cycle, but they have predicted and are so convinced that the apex of the cycle is coming so many times that this prediction becomes meaningless. They are not looking at the broader market context. I'm still groping in the market and learning. I haven't experienced enough market cycles to make me feel like an expert, so I'm just here to share my true thoughts and observations. Please draw conclusions based on your own judgment and make your own financial decisions. I don't know more than anyone, and I change my opinion regularly based on new data. Arguments in favor of the apex of the four-year cycle Perspectives on pattern recognition: Looking back at historical charts, there is no denying that there is a clear pattern: December 2013, December 2017, November 2021. The four-year cycle behaves unusually consistently, and patterns in markets typically persist until they are broken by a fundamental shift. Why this pattern may continue: Psychology is deeply ingrained: The four-year cycle is deeply embedded in the collective consciousness of the cryptocurrency market. Self-fulfilling prophecy: This widespread perception may trigger coordinated selling pressure, while at the same time communicating with hidden levers in the system (possibly DATs?). Combined. Correlation of the halving effect: Bitcoin halvings create supply shocks that historically typically occur 12 to 18 months before the peak (though in this cycle, this is more narrative driven than practical). Occam's razor: The simplest explanation is often correct: Why complicate a pattern that has already succeeded three times? We are clearly in the middle and late part of the cycle: Bitcoin has made considerable gains since the bottom. The pattern suggests that we may be approaching a peak time window. Argument Against the Apex of the Four-Year Cycle (2026 Theory): A Fundamentally Shifting Perspective: I ask a simple question: can an institution-driven cycle really be exactly the same as the previous two retailer-driven cycles? I believe in market cycles in general, so I won't discuss so-called "super cycles" here, but I think cycles can be shortened or extended due to other factors. Why this time might really be different: 1. Institutional Behavior vs. Retail Behavior Spot ETF flows and traditional exchange flows create a new liquidity model. Institutional systemic profit-taking is smoother and less susceptible to panic driven, while retail investor behavior is more volatile. 2. Traditional indicators may not work We have a large number of cycle analysis tools (such as NVT, MVRV, etc.), but their historical scope is based on retail-driven markets. The involvement of institutions fundamentally changes the definition of "overreach". At present, bitcoin has not even surpassed the high of the previous cycle in gold: it is hardly a bubble. 3. Regulatory Environment Revolution The market environment for this cycle is completely different, and the acceptance of the United States and the SEC has clarified the institutional framework. Previous cycles were partially ended by regulatory shocks (such as the 2018 ICO hit). The risk of the end of that systemic burst cycle has been greatly reduced. 4. Macroeconomics and Fed Dynamics Fed Chairman Powell's term ends in May 2026, and Trump is expected to announce a new chair by the end of 2025. The "shadow Fed chairman" dynamic undermines the effectiveness of the current policy and may generate early buying pressure in anticipation of Trump's nomination of a moderate chairman. The first FOMC meeting of the new Fed chair is scheduled for June 17-18, 2026: or a potential cycle catalyst. The transition period is likely to continue the "Blonde (Goldilocks) environment" (meaning a stable economy with moderate interest rates). Fed Presidential Transition Historical Model: Looking back at past transitions can provide a compelling template for market cycles. Steady pattern: Both transitions showed a similar sequence: nomination announcements sparked market gains and continued into the transition period, but the S&P 500 adjustment coincided with the new chairman's presidency. During the Yellen transition, the S&P 500 lost about 6% in January-February 2014. When Ball took over, the S&P 500 underwent about a 12% correction in February 2018. This pattern suggests that Trump's expected announcement of a new presidential nomination at the end of 2025 could extend the bull market to the transition period, with a higher chance of greater volatility during the May-June 2026 transition: this could coincide with the time window at the apex of the cycle 5. Changes in market structure Currency depreciation concerns: This factor is creating new demand drivers that are no longer limited to traditional risk-appetite cycles. Stablecoin market capitalization as a leading indicator: steady growth, becoming a key indicator of the market's "dry powder" (potential purchasing power). Bitcoin demand is more diverse in sources: including ETFs, DATs (digital asset treasuries), pension funds, and more, more widely than in previous cycles. What could end the cycle early and cause the four-year cycle to reappear? DAT leverage risk: I think the strongest bearish factor is that digital asset treasury companies may liquidate leverage faster than expected. The main coercive seller may overwhelm the buyer and change the market structure. However, there is a difference between losing purchase demand (mNAV close to 1) and becoming a forced seller triggering a "violent decline". Nevertheless, the loss of purchasing power of the main DATs is clearly a significant impact. There is a lot of speculation that this is already happening, especially since mNAV at Strategy and major ETH DAT companies has dropped significantly. I'm not blind to this, and you shouldn't ignore it, so it's worth paying close attention. Macro risks: Rising inflation again will be the main macro risk, but I have not seen evidence of that at the moment. The cryptocurrency market is now highly correlated with the macro environment, while we are still in the "Goldilocks (Goldilocks)" state (stable economy and moderate interest rates). The missing elements of the cycle apex There is no fanaticism yet: The market is still not free from worry, and every 5% pullback triggers the forecast of the cycle apex (which has been going on for 18 months). Lack of sustained market frenzy or consistent market acceptance of rally. No "burst vertex" behavior occurs (although not required). Potential signals: If the cryptocurrency market shows a significant rally later this year and significantly outperforms the stock market, this "explosive apex" signal could indicate that the crypto market's cycle peak is earlier than the business cycle expected to last until 2026. Stablecoin Leading Indicator A particularly noteworthy indicator...