First Market | Panic sentiment has eased, BTC broke through $85,000 during the trading session.

Daily Summary: Altcoin Season Index Rebounds from Bottom, Bitcoin May Have Established Long-Term Bottom

According to data from Farside Investors, there was a total net outflow of $1 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States last Friday. Among them, Bitwise BITB had an outflow of $12.3 million, while ARK Invest ARKB had a net inflow of $11.3 million. Yesterday, Ethereum spot ETFs saw an outflow of $29.2 million, with Grayscale ETHE having an outflow of $26.1 million and Bitwise ETHW seeing an outflow of $3.1 million.

Perspective: Economic slowdown could become a major catalyst for digital assets such as Bitcoin.

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, has warned about a potential economic recession in the U.S., stating that it may have already begun. In an interview with CNBC, Fink pointed out that escalating economic pressures and protectionist trade policies are key drivers behind what he believes to be a slow economic contraction. While concerns about a recession typically unsettle traditional markets, cryptocurrency investors might have reason to cheer. The impending economic slowdown could prompt the Federal Reserve to change its course on monetary tightening, potentially triggering a new wave of liquidity. Analysts suggest this scenario could serve as a major catalyst for digital assets like Bitcoin. Fink's comments follow similar predictions from major Wall Street firms, including JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that a weaker dollar could boost Bitcoin in the short term and may open doors for BTC to gain traction as an alternative global reserve asset in the long term.

Altcoin Season Index rebounds from the bottom

According to Coinmarketcap data, the market has slightly warmed up, with the Altcoin Season Index rising from a recent low of 14 on the day of Trump's tariffs to 17, but still significantly down from the March average of 32 and the February average of 43. The altcoin index has been declining since it reached an annual high of 87 on December 4, 2024, with only 15 out of the top 100 cryptocurrencies seeing gains surpassing Bitcoin in the past 90 days. The top-performing altcoins in the last 90 days among the top 100 are AB, XCN, FORM, OM, and IP.

Analysis: Bitcoin may have once again established a long-term bottom.

Analyst James Van Straten recently released a chart analysis stating that the current round of market sell-off triggered by the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy began on April 3. Since then, the market has continued to experience severe volatility, panic sentiment has spread to both stock and bond markets, gold prices have surged to historical highs, and the dollar index (DXY) has fallen below the 100 mark for the first time since July 2023. The S&P volatility index (VIX) has soared to the highest level since last August, while the Bitcoin/VIX ratio has reached the long-term trend line, with historical data showing that this often indicates a bottom in Bitcoin prices. According to TradingView data, the current Bitcoin/VIX ratio has reached 1903 points, touching the long-term trend line. The last time this trend line was effective was during the market volatility triggered by the yen carry trade unwinding, when Bitcoin was bottoming around $49,000. In fact, this is the fourth time this ratio has touched the trend line, forming a market bottom: a similar pattern occurred during the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020, as well as earlier in August 2015, both times followed by an upward trend. If this trend line continues to provide reliable support, it may indicate that Bitcoin has once again established a long-term bottom.

Market Analysis: BTC Continues to Surge, OM Suddenly Crashes

Market Hotspots

The RWA sector project MANTRA (OM) plummeted by 90% in a short period, collapsing from $6 to $0.5, with a market capitalization evaporating over $5.5 billion. Subsequently, the MANTRA team released a statement claiming that this drop was caused by irrational liquidations and had nothing to do with the project itself, stating it was not the team's doing.

Musk's concept Meme coin RFC briefly surpassed a market value of 100 million USD. Retard Finder initially gained popularity from a web post: when someone graffitied a Nazi symbol on a Tesla Cybertruck, it simply responded with "Found one" along with a screenshot of the incident. This concise and humorous style immediately sparked widespread sharing and established its tone of "exposing absurdity with minimal words." Despite active trading, it is essential to recognize that its popularity largely relies on market sentiment and conceptual hype, and it has no actual value or use case.

Market Trend

BTC has been continuously rising due to adjustments in U.S. tariff policies, briefly breaking through $85,000 during the trading session. It has now surpassed the previous resistance level and may welcome further bullish momentum.

ETH follows the market to launch an upward attack, breaking through the $1,600 mark during the session, but ETF data shows that its trading volume remains weak.

Altcoins are experiencing a widespread decline, influenced by the flash crash of representative tokens, with the RWA sector leading the drop at 44%. The PayFi sector is rising against the trend, with ECOX, SVL, and CIRUS leading the gains within the sector.

Macroeconomic News: Panic sentiment eases, three major US stock indices rise

Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indices rose collectively, with the Nasdaq climbing over 2%, and both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices rising over 1%. Most large technology stocks in the U.S. strengthened, with Apple soaring more than 4% and Nvidia rising over 3%.

Analysis suggests that key hints from Federal Reserve officials have eased panic in the U.S. stock market. Boston Federal Reserve President Collins stated that if financial markets were to become chaotic, the Federal Reserve "is absolutely ready" to use its policy tools to stabilize the market. On the same day, "Wall Street's top dog," JPMorgan CEO Dimon also stated that if the U.S. Treasury market were to become "chaotic," it would prompt the Federal Reserve to intervene.

Author: Gate.io Researcher Orisi T. *This article only represents the author's opinion and does not constitute any trading advice. Investment carries risks, and decisions should be made with caution. *The content of this article is original and copyrighted by Gate.io. If reprinting is required, please indicate the author and source, otherwise legal responsibility will be pursued.