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Bitcoin's reaction to macroeconomic developments on Friday was relatively restrained, despite a sharp rise in the stock market. Institutional demand for spot ETFs has remained steady, providing underlying support to the market. Still, front-end implied volatility remained firm, with Bitcoin consolidating in a narrow range of $107,000 to $110,000. The recent persistently high volatility suggests that traders are positioning themselves for headline risk ahead of the Bitcoin Conference scheduled for May 27-29 in Las Vegas. Market attention has begun to focus on the conference's lineup of speakers, including J.D. Vance, Michael Saylor, Trump II, and Eric Trump. The Bitcoin Conference held in Nashville last July provided a useful reference. At the time, President Trump's keynote speech triggered a 1-day spike in implied volatility above 90 before quickly retreating, with Bitcoin falling nearly 30% in two days. This event continues to affect market memory. While the likelihood of a similar sharp retracement may seem low, the market positioning is showing a defensive bias. Over the past 24 hours, open interest in perpetual contracts has decreased and funding rates have been normalized. Some high-beta retail traders, including James Wynn, have also reduced their exposures. The demand for short-term put options remains in the spotlight. Against this backdrop, there have been reports that Trump Media is exploring a $3 billion cryptocurrency funding, which, although it has been denied, has increased the market's sensitivity to the headlines. Bitcoin is likely to continue to fluctuate in a range in the short term. Once the conference is over and key presentations are over, front-end volatility is expected to compress as the risk premium subsides.

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