Today's white market crypto market shows a pattern of rising first and then declining, and fluctuating in a narrow range. Bitcoin launched two rounds of upward attacks in the early morning and early morning, successfully breaking through the $110,000 mark, but failed to form an effective stabilization, and then started a retracement consolidation. Since then, Bitcoin has maintained a sideways trend throughout the day, with limited range volatility, and the market seems to be preparing for the upcoming CPI data in the evening. Ethereum also hit an intraday high of $2,834 in the early hours of the morning before moving into a sideways phase. From noon to noon, the price of Ethereum showed a slight pullback, but the overall market was evenly matched, and neither the rising nor falling market could form a continuous trend.

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From a technical point of view, Bitcoin's current price fluctuations can be regarded as a technical correction after the previous rally. Although the price briefly broke below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, the lower band area of the Bollinger bands has shown clear support. At the same time, the fast and slow lines in the MACD indicator are still running above the zero line, indicating that the overall bullish pattern of the market has not yet been broken. It is worth noting that during the price decline, the volume continues to shrink, which means that the bearish power is gradually weakening. In addition, multiple K-line patterns with long lower shadows frequently appear near the key support level, indicating that the activity of the low-level receiver is increasing, while the medium and long-term moving average system still maintains a bullish arrangement, providing strong technical support for the subsequent price rebound. Overall, the market is currently in the wait-and-see phase of the evening CPI data, which is expected to trigger a new round of market volatility after the release of the data, and investors are advised to remain patient and pay close attention to the market dynamics after the release of the data.

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Based on the current market environment and the Fed's policy focus, the CPI annual rate data released tonight will be a key variable affecting the path of monetary policy over the next three months. Although consumer inflation expectations have eased recently (one-year inflation expectations fell to 3.2% in May), core inflation stickiness remains, especially in the services sector, where price pressures have not yet fully subsided. A higher-than-expected CPI reading could reinforce market expectations for the Fed's "hawkish pause" strategy – that is, to keep rates unchanged in June while hinting at the possibility of a July rate hike through the dot plot, which resonates with the current cautious pricing in a 75bp rate cut by the Fed funds futures market this year. It is worth noting that during the window period when the tariff policy shock is suspended, commodity price volatility and labor market resilience have become the core contradictions of the inflation trend. On the one hand, the drag effect of the decline in energy prices on the overall CPI has gradually weakened; On the other hand, high wage growth is likely to continue to support core services inflation. The market needs to be wary of the risk of a steepening of the US Treasury yield curve after the release of the data, especially if the 10-year Treasury yield breaks through the key resistance level of 4.3%, which may trigger a reconfiguration of risk asset valuations. Investors are advised to focus on the month-on-month growth rate of core CPI and the sub-change in housing, which are the two most instructive #5月CPI 数据将公布# #科技巨头布局稳定币# #现货比特币ETF持仓破110万枚# for Fed decision-making