2025 Crypto Market Outlook: Four Scenarios and Eleven Predictions

Since 2024, the crypto market has experienced a bull market cycle. After the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, the price of Bitcoin has repeatedly reached new highs, driving the prosperity of the altcoin market. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is hovering around $90,000.

It is worth noting that altcoin markets often start when Bitcoin reaches a peak. The first round was when Bitcoin hit $69,000, and the next round may be when Bitcoin breaks $100,000.

The next round of altcoin market is expected to occur in the first quarter of 2025, when Bitcoin is likely to stabilize at $100,000. However, before that, the market might replay the script of the second/third quarter of 2024. Here are four scenarios that may appear in 2025:

Scenario 1: Bitcoin and altcoins are rising broadly. The market has been on the rise in 2025, recreating the overall upward trend of the past two months with a probability of 30-40%.

Strategy: Buy undervalued altcoins that perform well.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises, a few altcoins rise. Repeat the trend of 2024, but overall more bullish with a 50-60% probability.

Strategy: Select high-quality altcoins for buying on dips, avoid popular tracks, and look for potential coins.

Scenario 3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins generally fall (20-30% probability ).

Strategy: Reduce or liquidate altcoins.

Scenario 4: Bitcoin and altcoins generally decline. The market reaches a peak with a 10-20% probability of (.

![Year-end series: 4 scenarios and 11 predictions for the 2025 annual market])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-f884553a5e863e9a4ac8e3416c62f400.webp(

Due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, the time for a new round of Bitcoin to break its historical high may be shorter than 2024. Currently, the market's perception of Bitcoin has changed, and the new government has also brought new attention to digital assets. These factors are all conducive to Bitcoin maintaining its upward momentum in 2025.

In terms of altcoins, the overall trend may be similar to Bitcoin, but the specifics may vary. The key lies in selection and timing. While the market in 2025 looks promising, the timing of the rise is hard to predict. During phases lacking catalysts, altcoins may still experience significant corrections.

As long as the market cycle has not ended, one should remain optimistic about both Bitcoin and altcoins. It is unlikely that a drop similar to the summer of 2024 will occur in 2025, but a stable period similar to the current one may emerge.

On-chain projects are more likely to experience significant fluctuations, potentially dropping by 70% during market downturns. However, currently, altcoins and Bitcoin have not peaked yet and still have room for growth.

Conclusion:

• The increase in Bitcoin will exceed that of 2024.
• The overall altcoin market has risen, but the pullback is smaller than in 2024.

) risk factors

Cycle Top Currently, we are still far from the market cycle top, but continuous assessment is needed. The cycle top is usually a slowly approaching range rather than a single event.

Macroeconomic Risk The expected interest rate cut will be limited. As long as interest rates continue to decline, liquidity will improve, which is favorable for digital assets. The risk lies in inflation rising again, forcing an interest rate hike.

Supply Risk A large amount of Bitcoin is concentrated in the hands of a few institutions, which requires close attention. However, if handled properly, it could also become a buying opportunity.

( Token Recommendation

1. AI Related Preferred: Application Technology/Cluster/Game/Consumer-Level AI Recommendation: ALCH, Griffain, Digimon, Ai16z, etc.

2. DeFi Preferred: AAVE, ENA, Morpho, Euler, USUAL Secondary selection: stablecoins/payment-related tokens

3. L1 Public Chain Preferred: SUI, Hype Secondary Selection: Abstract

4. NFT and Game Tokens Preferred: Pengu, Anime, Spellborne, Treeverse Secondary options: Prime, Overworld

5. Other Topics

• Data Tokens: Kaito, Arkm
• Meme Coin: PEPE
• DePIN: PEAQ, HNT
• Ordinals
• Traditional DeFi: CRV, CVX

) 11 Predictions for 2025

1. A large company will implement DePIN in some way.
2. A certain trading platform's market share will surpass Binance.
3. Metaverse tokens regain attention with the advancement of VR technology
4. ICO Returns to the Market
5. There will be no altcoin market on the Ethereum chain.
6. Sui price breaks through 10 dollars
7. Ethereum ETF approved, leading to more staking yield products
8. Famous artists use NFTs and tokens to engage with fans
9. Bitcoin reaches 200,000 USD
10. More founders of L1 projects have left.
11. Base lost in the competition with L1, Solana maintains its advantage.