The geopolitical and NBA open contract volumes on Polymarket have surged.

According to Gate News bot, The Block reported that the prediction markets on Polymarket related to recent global tensions and geopolitical conflicts have seen a significant rise in open interest (OI), with the Iran-related market leading the surge last week.

The "U.S. Military Action Against Iran Before July" market, scheduled for settlement next week, has seen its open positions increase from $249,000 two weeks ago to $6.19 million at the time of writing. During the same period, the open positions for the question "Will the U.S. officially declare war on Iran before July?" also skyrocketed from $0 to $3.04 million. Other markets focusing on Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have seen their open positions grow on average by 10 times over the past few days.

This trend highlights the increasing "gamification" and "financialization" of real-world events, with Polymarket playing a central role in facilitating this behavior.

Meanwhile, one of the few other prominent markets with outstanding contracts that is on the rise is the market surrounding the NBA Championship. At the beginning of 2025, the OI for this market was $670,000, but by Sunday, just before the start of Game 7 of the NBA Finals, the OI had exceeded $7.5 million. Ultimately, the Oklahoma City Thunder crowned the championship.

Despite the surge in markets related to Iran, they still only account for a small portion of the total open interest on the Polymarket platform, which currently exceeds $131 million. The total open interest on the platform has hovered around $100 million for more than six months, far below the historical peak of over $510 million during the U.S. presidential election – a decrease of 74%.

In addition, the number of monthly active traders and trading volume are both less than half of their historical highs, while the creation of new markets has decreased by 23%. The platform's market is becoming increasingly diversified, as reflected in the composition of open contracts, indicating that the market is shifting from concentrated political betting (e.g., the U.S. election) to broader, event-driven speculation.