Today's market dynamics: ETF hotspots and the Ripple case are nearing conclusion, XRP is expected to break through $3; BTC falls due to tariffs.

XRP hits six-week high due to optimistic sentiment from lawsuit The market's optimistic sentiment regarding the potential end of the SEC lawsuit against Ripple has driven the price of XRP to a six-week high of 2.3539 USD on July 7 (Monday). Although the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has remained silent about its appeal plans, recent events have strengthened market expectations that the SEC will abandon its appeal against the "XRP programmatic sales ruling."

On July 8, Gate.io market shows that XRP is currently priced at $2.266, with a slight increase of 0.17% in the last 24 hours.

Key Agreements and Appeal Status Previously, the SEC and Ripple reached an agreement: if Judge Analisa Torres made a summary judgment lifting the ban on selling XRP to institutional investors and reducing the $125 million fine to $50 million, both parties would waive their appeals. Despite Judge Torres rejecting both parties' joint motions for a declaratory judgment twice, Ripple still announced the withdrawal of its cross-appeal on June 27. It is widely believed that without a tacit agreement from the SEC to withdraw its appeal, Ripple's move is difficult to explain.

Key Vote on SEC Decision However, the SEC must vote on whether to abandon the appeal based on maintaining the status quo of the injunction and the $125 million fine. The next SEC closed meeting is scheduled for July 10 (Thursday), which will be the second opportunity for SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and the commissioners to vote on withdrawing the appeal. The uncertainty of the voting results has kept the XRP price below its 2025 high of $3.3999 and its historical peak of $3.5505.

Is the SEC's lawsuit against Ripple a "stunt"? Legal experts' views

At the same time, there are speculations in the market that the SEC's lawsuit against Ripple is a carefully orchestrated "show." An XRP holder quoted comments from Jesse of Apex Crypto Consulting:

"According to Jesse's view, the legal battle between Ripple and the SEC is more like a carefully orchestrated performance. He believes this is being used to control the price of XRP and allows Ripple to quietly establish strong partnerships globally."

Legal experts firmly oppose this viewpoint. Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan stated:

"I have never agreed with this theory, even if the recent two-week indicative ruling joint motion seems to unnecessarily delay the end of the litigation by three months (and is still ongoing), it's more like a delay under the faint hope."

Ripple Action Causes Confusion It is noteworthy that Ripple previously agreed to abandon its cross-appeal if the court lifted the injunction and reduced the fine. However, just one day after Judge Torres rejected the motion for a declaratory judgment on the settlement terms for the second time, Ripple announced the withdrawal of its cross-appeal, which raised confusion about the necessity of the settlement.

Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel commented:

"They were sued by the SEC for violating federal securities laws, and the court confirmed this. The SEC's enforcement division simply does not care whether a company is changing the status quo. That is not how the agency operates. Sorry."

XRP Price Outlook: SEC Appeal Headlines and ETF Rumors

On July 7th (Monday), XRP fell slightly by 0.06%, closing at $2.2714, partially giving back the 2.4% gain from Sunday. XRP outperformed the overall cryptocurrency market (which fell by 0.85%, with a total market cap dropping to $3.3 trillion).

The short-term XRP price trend largely depends on the SEC's appeal plan and the progress related to the XRP spot ETF in the United States. Although the SEC approved the rule change for Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) to convert into an ETF, it imposed a "stay," delaying the launch of the ETF. The GDLC allows investors to access BTC, ETH, ADA, SOL, and XRP. The final launch of the GDLC ETF may pave the way for the approval of the XRP spot ETF, which will be a potential catalyst for driving XRP to break through.

• Bullish Scenario: If it can break through the July 7th high of $2.3539, it may test the May high of $2.6553. A sustained break above this level could set the bull's target at $3 and the 2025 high of $3.3999.
• Bearish Scenario: If it breaks below the 50-day EMA, it may test the key support level of $2.2, or even drop to the 200-day EMA.
• XRP daily chart technical indicators still emit bullish signals.
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Bitcoin Drops Due to Tariff Impact, Spot ETF Inflows Provide Support

When the fate of XRP is in the hands of the SEC, U.S. tariff trends have affected the demand for Bitcoin (BTC). President Trump announced a trade letter reimposing tariffs at the "Liberation Day" (April 2) levels. A Bloomberg chart shared by Tolou Capital Management founder Spencer Hakimian highlights the similarities between the latest tariffs and those from "Liberation Day."

Tariff Test Risk Sentiment BTC has always been sensitive to trade developments. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged since the implementation of Trump's tariffs due to concerns that tariffs would exacerbate inflationary pressures. The announcement on Monday may further delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, affecting risk assets. The prospect of punitive tariffs has also weighed on the US stock market, with the Nasdaq Composite Index falling by 0.92%.

US BTC Spot ETF Continues to Attract Capital Inflows Despite the market's reaction to Trump's tariff letter, U.S. BTC spot ETF issuers continue to see strong demand, which has buffered the downward pressure on BTC. According to data from Farside Investors, key fund flow trends on July 7 include:

• Fidelity Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) net inflow of $66 million.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) net inflow of $6.2 million.
• Meanwhile, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) had a total net outflow of $20.3 million.
• BlackRock (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw a net inflow of $164.6 million, with total inflows for the US BTC spot ETF reaching $216.5 million in a single day, recording net inflows for three consecutive trading days. The last report of net outflow for IBIT was on June 6.

BTC Price Outlook: Trade, Legislation, and ETF Fund Flows Become the Focus

BTC fell 0.87% on July 7, closing at $108,284, continuing last Sunday's decline of 0.86%.

On July 8th, Gate market data shows that BTC is currently reported at $108,372.0, with a slight decrease of 0.42% in the past 24 hours.

The short-term price trend of BTC depends on several key events: trade headlines, legislative developments, Federal Reserve statements, and the trend of funds flowing into spot ETFs.

• Bearish Scenario: Escalating trade tensions, legislative setbacks, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, and outflows from ETFs. This combination of factors could drag BTC down towards the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), or even test the $100,000 level.
• Bullish Scenario: Easing trade tensions, bipartisan support for cryptocurrency legislation, dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, and continued inflows into ETFs. In these situations, BTC may challenge its all-time high (ATH) of $111,917.
• BTC daily chart technical indicators are still signaling bullish.

Investors need to pay close attention

Investors should continuously pay attention to the following key driving factors that will determine whether XRP and BTC prices can reach new historical highs:

1. Latest Updates on the Ripple Case: SEC Appeal Plans (Whether the SEC Appeal will be withdrawn).
2. Legislative Progress: Advancement of crypto bills such as the "Market Structure Act."
3. U.S. Trade News: Potential retaliatory measures from countries regarding Trump's tariff letters.
4. Federal Reserve Policy Guidance: Hawkish or dovish signals.
5. ETF Market Fund Flow: The trend of fund flow is crucial for the supply-demand balance of BTC. (Source: FXEmpire)