Bitcoin breaks through $124,000 to an all-time high! Analyst: The rally will not stop until the end of the year

Bitcoin (BTC) has strongly broken through 124,000 USD today, refreshing its historical record, with a maximum reaching 124,347 USD, benefiting from the dual push of rising expectations for interest rate cuts in September and sustained institutional demand growth. Market analysts believe that structural supply scarcity and the confidence of long-term holders will support BTC in maintaining an upward trend for the remainder of this year.

Factors Driving BTC to a New Historical High

(Source: The Block)

Price performance: BTC's daily increase once reached 3.64%, breaking through July's high, and then fell back to around 123,868 USD.

Ethereum moves stronger: ETH rises 2.3% to $4,717, approaching the historical high set in 2021.

Market sentiment: The latest US CPI data came in below expectations, driving market bets on loose monetary policy.

Macroeconomics and Interest Rate Cut Expectations

CPI Data: The U.S. July CPI year-on-year increase is 2.7%, lower than market expectations; core CPI year-on-year increase is 3.1%, slightly higher than expected.

Interest rate cut probability: The CME Fed Watch tool shows that the likelihood of a rate cut in September is as high as 93.7%.

Potential risks: Although overall inflation has eased, the rise in core inflation may cause the Federal Reserve to remain cautious.

Analyst's View: Min Jung of Presto Research pointed out that BTC will be highly sensitive to any changes in the interest rate decision in September.

Institutional Demand and Supply Structure

BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas stated that Bitcoin is benefiting from a "perfect storm":

1. ETF capital inflow: In the past month, BTC ETF has increased by more than 3.6 billion dollars.

2. Institutional and Sovereign Holdings: Enterprises and sovereign treasuries hold a total of 3.64 million BTC, accounting for over 17% of the total supply.

3. Long-term holders: Strategic long-term positions limit the market circulation supply, creating a structural demand and matching scarcity.

Analyst's Forecast on Year-End Trends

Short-term trend: It is expected that BTC may consolidate in the range of 120,000–125,000 dollars.

Medium to long-term trend: Scarce supply and strong demand will support further rise of BTC before the end of the year.

Investment Position: Bitcoin and Ethereum are increasingly being viewed as core portfolio assets, with institutional allocation ratios continuing to rise.

Conclusion and Key Points for Investors to Observe

Bitcoin has reached a new historical high under the expectations of interest rate cuts and the influx of institutional funds, demonstrating the market's confidence in its long-term value.

Investors should pay attention to:

1. The interest rate decision of the September FOMC meeting.

2. Will the trend of ETF capital inflows continue?

3. Can the key support level of 120,000 USD hold firm?

If the macro environment and capital flow continue to align, it is not impossible for BTC to break through 130,000 USD or even higher before the end of the year.