Where did the alt season craze go? Unraveling the delayed bull run

Alt season has not disappeared; it is just waiting for the right conditions.

Written by: A Aldokali

Translation: Plain Language Blockchain

For months, cryptocurrency traders have been anxiously refreshing price charts, anticipating the arrival of the alt season, when altcoins will surge significantly. However, despite bullish predictions and brief upticks, the alt season has still not materialized.

Bitcoin continues to dominate the market, leaving altcoin enthusiasts wondering: Why has the alt season been delayed? Will there still be an alt season?

The Iron Grip of Bitcoin: Dominance and Institutional Adoption

Bitcoin's dominance—its share of the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies—has hovered around 60% between 2024 and 2025, a level not seen since the bull market of 2017. This dominance reflects the market's preference for Bitcoin, due to its stability and widespread adoption by institutions.

Institutional Attention: Bitcoin ETFs approved at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 have attracted billions of dollars in inflows into BTC, making it a "safe-haven asset" in the crypto market. Large institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity prioritize Bitcoin, ignoring altcoins.

Halving effect: The 2024 Bitcoin halving event reinforces its scarcity narrative, attracting funds that might have flowed into higher-risk altcoins.

As analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed out, "altcoins typically only begin to rise after Bitcoin has completed its parabolic ascent." Since BTC continues to reach new highs, investors have no reason to turn to altcoins.

Macroeconomic Headwinds: The Federal Reserve's Tight Control on Liquidity

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has always been the invisible killer of alt season hopes. Unlike the bull market of 2020-2021 (driven by near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing), the 2024-2025 period is marked by quantitative tightening (QT) and high interest rates.

Liquidity Tightening: Quantitative tightening has drained liquidity from financial markets and reduced risk appetite. As speculative assets, altcoins rely on excess capital, and without liquidity, they can only stagnate.

Rate cut delayed: Despite market rumors that the Federal Reserve may shift to an easing policy, a rate cut is still a long way off. Before borrowing costs come down, both institutional and retail investors are reluctant to take risks in altcoins.

This macroeconomic backdrop sharply contrasts with the previous alt season, when Meme and DeFi tokens soared significantly.

Altcoin Supply Overabundance: Too Many Coins, Insufficient Demand

The crypto market is flooded with over 15,000 altcoins, but liquidity is not keeping up. New projects are launched every day, but the total capital pool remains fragmented, leading to diluted potential returns.

Capital dispersion: More tokens compete for the same liquidity, making it difficult for even promising projects to gain attention.

Venture capital cautious: Investment in crypto projects has decreased from $29.4 billion in 2022 to $7.1 billion in 2024, and there is a severe shortage of funding for altcoin development.

This oversupply has created a "crowded market" where only tokens with outstanding practicality or viral popularity can stand out—this is far from the ICO craze of 2017 or the NFT frenzy of 2021.

Retail Investors Absent

Altcoin season is usually driven by retail FOMO (fear of missing out). However, retail participation in 2025 is noticeably weaker compared to past cycles.

Social sentiment is sluggish: Indicators tracking crypto-related social media activity show a lack of the frenzy seen during the 2021 Dogecoin or Shiba Inu craze.

Cautious behavior: Retail investors who were hurt in the market crash of 2022 now prefer Bitcoin over altcoins. As one trader said, "When BTC has risen 150% this year, why buy Meme?"

Without the enthusiasm of retail investors, altcoins lack the fuel to ignite a sustained rise.

Regulatory Uncertainty: A Double-Edged Sword

Regulatory clarity is crucial for altcoins, especially those classified as securities. Although the Trump administration's pro-crypto stance ignited optimism, progress remains slow.

ETF Delayed: The altcoin ETFs for Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin are still stuck in regulatory limbo. Analysts believe they have a 65-90% chance of approval, but the timeline remains unclear.

DeFi and Stablecoin Scrutiny: Regulatory ambiguity surrounding decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols and stablecoins stifles innovation and deters institutional investment.

Uncertainty will persist until regulatory authorities approve altcoin ETFs or clarify rules.

Historical Mode: Patience is a Virtue

The crypto market is cyclical, and altcoin seasons usually occur in the last year of Bitcoin's four-year cycle. While 2025 is considered the next alt season, delays are not without precedent.

2017 vs. 2021: Both alt seasons occurred after Bitcoin reached a historical high and entered consolidation. If BTC stabilizes above $100,000, capital may eventually flow into altcoins.

ETH/BTC Ratio: Ethereum's poor performance against Bitcoin indicates that the alt season has not yet begun. Historically, Ethereum usually leads altcoins in their rise, but its ratio to BTC remains close to multi-year lows.

Summary

The alt season has not disappeared; it is just waiting for the right conditions. Bitcoin's dominance, macroeconomic pressures, and regulatory obstacles have temporarily pressed the pause button on the altcoin frenzy. However, history shows that once BTC enters a stable period and liquidity returns, altcoins will have their moment.

Currently, it is key to invest patiently and selectively in projects with strong fundamentals—such as artificial intelligence, DeFi, or Layer-2 solutions. As the saying in the crypto community goes: "Time in the market beats timing the market."

Stay alert, act cautiously, and keep a close eye on Bitcoin's dominance. The clock for alt season is ticking - it's just a matter of time, not whether it will happen.