BTC Vs. Gold: New Collaboration in the Safe-Haven Asset Market

According to media reports, Joe Consorti, the director of BTC custody service provider Theya, believes that the price of BTC is expected to reach a new all-time high between the third and fourth quarters of 2025, and stated: "When the printing press starts running, gold notices first, and then BTC will follow more fiercely."

Value Storage Showdown: BTC Vs. Gold

From 2000 to early 2008, the spot gold price (i.e., London gold) showed a stable trend, with a low price of 255 USD.

Data source: LBMA's afternoon fixing price for gold spot.

In September 2011, under the massive increase in money supply due to the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, the spot gold price quickly rose to $1,851.

Since 2013, the price of BTC has gradually risen, breaking the $100 mark. In October 2013, the price of BTC surpassed $1,000.

From 2011 to 2020, the Federal Reserve continued to implement an accommodative monetary policy, and gold prices ranged between $1,000 and $1,500.

In 2020, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a surge in the "gold buying craze," accelerating the increase in gold prices, which reached $1,944.75 in August 2020. In 2024, with the intensifying uncertainty of the global political and economic situation, gold prices were rapidly and significantly adjusted, reaching another price peak of $2,736.45 in October 2024.

In 2018, BTC experienced its first price surge, reaching $16,408; in 2021, it continued to surge to

On April 22, 2025, the spot gold price soared to a daily high of $3,499.83 per ounce, marking a recent price peak.

Due to the historical prices of gold and BTC showing convergence in an upward trend, the subsequent price movement of BTC at a time when gold prices have reached a new high is attracting much attention.

△ Overview of BTC and Gold Price Trends

Image source: sc.macromicro.me

Price Correlation of Safe-Haven Assets

Gold has long been regarded as an important safe-haven asset, often prioritized when a portfolio needs to enhance its liquidity hedging capabilities or serve as a reserve tool. Due to its scarcity, stability, indivisibility, and value not being tied to any national sovereign credit, gold has also become an important defensive asset for countries in the face of inflation risk.

The total supply of the digital asset BTC is fixed at 21 million coins, and it adopts a "halving" mechanism every four years (the most recent occurrence was in April 2024), giving it scarcity and anti-inflation characteristics similar to gold, and it is referred to as "digital gold." Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the weakening of the US dollar and the rise in global sovereign credit risk have led BTC to attract increasing attention from risk-averse funds.

After the listing of the Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024 and the inclusion of BTC as a "strategic reserve option" by the U.S. government in 2025, it not only drives the expectation of more sovereign funds entering the digital asset space but also enhances global investors' further attention to safe-haven assets. At the same time, investors are trying to find more correlations between the price movements of gold and BTC, as well as the triggers for market sentiment.

According to the historical price trend patterns, the price of BTC often peaks within 12 to 18 months after a halving event. The peak of this cycle is expected to occur in May 2025, with a price target potentially reaching $156,000.

From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the BTC spot price fluctuated between $92,785.32 and $97,895.76, with an amplitude of 5.51%.

Analyst apsk32 predicts that the price of BTC is expected to reach $450,000 in November or December 2025, based on the mechanism of halving the issuance every four years and fitting the BTC market value power curve in terms of gold ounces. "1" Investor Robert Kiyosaki also posted on the X platform predicting the BTC price, but more conservatively, expecting the BTC price to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.

JPMorgan's prediction suggests that gold prices will continue to rise, expected to reach $3,675 per ounce by the end of 2025 and exceed $4,000 by mid-2026.

According to data from the data platform Newhedge, as of May 7, 2025, the correlation index between gold and BTC is approximately 0.57 "4". Some analysts believe that considering the macroeconomic situation, this correlation may increase as both compete for capital inflows in the safe-haven asset market.

Projection of the Same Market Sentiment

Joseph Cavatoni, the senior strategist for the North American market at the World Gold Council, believes that when risk assets rise, BTC and gold (prices) are positively correlated. However, when the market declines, gold (prices) are negatively correlated, while BTC (prices) are positively correlated.

Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, stated in an interview with CNBC that BTC and gold are both key indicators of financial management.

Against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty in the global macroeconomic environment, BTC and gold actually collaborate in the safe-haven asset market, jointly carrying the emotional changes of investors regarding concerns over the prospects of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds amid price fluctuations, alleviating the volatility brought by hot money during periods of economic uncertainty.

However, due to the virtuality of digital assets and the significant differences in regulatory systems across various countries, gold, as a physical safe-haven asset, offers greater certainty and stability. This is also the view of Conchao, a senior strategist for the North American market at the World Gold Council: considering the three factors of investment diversification benefits, liquidity, and returns, increasing the allocation of gold in the investment portfolio is expected to provide better risk-adjusted returns — as a more balanced physical asset, gold provides protection during market downturns and brings returns during upturns.