Trump's relationship with Powell has eased, senior Fed officials continue to hawk, and there is no hope of cutting interest rates before September! The tariff policy was ordered by the U.S. court to be revoked within ten days, focusing on the core PCE tonight, can the pie stop falling and rebound? Exactly when the Fed will cut interest rates this year is not just a question of global investor relations. The director of the U.S. Housing Finance Bureau recently publicly shouted to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on his Twitter, saying that it is really time to cut interest rates, enough is enough!

Because the U.S. real estate market is currently in dire straits, the recently released data for April shows that the U.S. second-hand housing market has experienced the worst April since the 2009 subprime mortgage crisis, with a year-on-year sales decline of more than 2%. This is due to excessively high mortgage rates, with the 30-year mortgage rate now reaching 7%, which is almost the same as before the recent rate cuts by The Federal Reserve (FED).

The Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates at all. Yesterday, at a financial forum held in Japan, two senior officials spoke—one was Williams of the New York Federal Reserve, the third-ranking official of the Federal Reserve, and the other was this year's voting member Kashkari. Both made hawkish statements, stating that the United States is currently experiencing high tariffs, which brings a lot of uncertainty regarding future inflation.

And they also educated their counterparts at the Bank of Japan that when facing an uncertain inflation path, it is essential to boldly maintain high interest rates, implying that Japan can confidently raise interest rates, and that we at the Federal Reserve will also maintain high interest rates and will not lower them for the time being.

The attitude of senior officials at The Federal Reserve (FED) is very clear: before the impact of tariffs on the economy is fully revealed, which is before the unemployment and inflation data for July are released, the FED will remain inactive. Even if there is a rebound in inflation, it is likely that the FED will find it difficult to cut interest rates within this year.

That is much more optimistic than the Fed's strong Wall Street, now we look at the CME interest rate futures market real money trading out of the interest rate cut expectations, there are two more interest rate cuts this year, the probability of a rate cut in July is only a little more than 20%, and the probability of a rate cut in September is as much as 60%, that is to say, there are two interest rate cuts in September and December this year, JPMorgan Chase is firmly on the side of the Fed, thinking that there will be no more interest rate cuts this year.

So how exactly is the situation evolving? Tonight's core PCE inflation index is very important, whether the pie can stop falling and rebound, whether it is back to the upward channel, or enter the medium-term shock adjustment, we continue to observe and do not rush to conclusions.