Author: Joshua Source: X, @JoshuaDeuk Translation: Shan Ouba, Golden Finance
It's the weekend, and I have more time to think, so I want to share some thoughts on the market with everyone. I believe that the directional trend of the crypto market will not arrive before September.
Considering the macroeconomic resistance, summer liquidity tightness, and quarterly position adjustments, the real market trend will only commence after the August holidays, when market participants return.
From recent market activity, the rebound of most altcoins (except BTC) is actually driven by short covering.
Many traders have become accustomed to the "rebound → chasing the rise" rhythm from previous times, so they rushed in as well — but this time there are few true long-term holders, and most people have already been hurt in the market once before. Because of this, most tokens that experienced a sharp rise quickly faced a rapid correction.
Ethereum has surprisingly rebounded well, while the AI and meme sectors, which had previously seen the steepest declines, have become the leaders in the rebound.
At the same time, those tokens that are supported by real value, have strong fundamentals, or possess a repurchase mechanism are more resilient—they are more resistant to declines during downturns and recover faster during rebounds.
For example, Syrup, Hype, and AAVE are good examples. Although SPX is a meme coin, it is structurally completely different.
From these phenomena, we can draw several conclusions:
1. The demand for Bitcoin is real and ongoing
Traditional capital is gradually entering through ETFs and other regulated channels.
The capital nature supporting Bitcoin is fundamentally different from previous cycles.
This is why the likelihood of large-scale Bitcoin liquidations (chain liquidations caused by open contracts) is relatively low, unless triggered by macro events.
2. The differentiation between altcoins will further expand
In the end, capital will flow back into altcoins - but not in a widespread rally.
Only tokens with clear practicality and real use cases may receive such inflows.
This is why I believe Ethereum will outperform Solana in the future. Regulatory clarity, the growing usage of DeFi, a deflationary structure, and staking demand together create a powerful flywheel.
Moreover, due to Ethereum's long-term underperformance, there are still marginal buyers observing from the sidelines.
3. Structural Risks Exist for Tokens Supported by VC
The release of pressure continues to be unlocked, which will weigh on price performance. When there is insufficient liquidity, the selling pressure from validating nodes and early investors will limit the upside potential. Therefore, those tokens that are listed on CEX and have inflated valuations are less worth participating in the future. Especially for Cosmos ecosystem tokens, due to their incentive structure, they will continue to face selling pressure from validating nodes.
4. In this environment, meme coins once had structural advantages
No VC unlocking pressure
Fair Launch
Fully attention-driven
It is a pure emotional and attention play—just like during the early bull markets, and it really worked. But I think this phase is coming to an end.
The TGE of Pump.fun and the launch of Trump Coin may mark the peak of attention. After that, the market's interest in meme coins began to wane.
Even during the market wave in April, SOL couldn't outperform ETH—when everyone already holds it, who can take over and push the meme to continue rising?
Of course, some meme coins may still perform, especially those that can go viral on platforms like TikTok and Instagram, such as projects led by influential figures (like Murad). These coins may also create asymmetric wealth opportunities. But the era of "cute dog and cat coins = wealth code" is over. Only those meme coins with strong narratives and consensus still have real speculative value.
5. Ironically: people's fatigue towards VC coins has instead opened the door to wealth for fairly launched Web2/3 projects
Keeta is a great example.
But to seize such opportunities, you must truly be active on the chain. Because real opportunities always come from moments of information asymmetry. Once everyone knows, it is no longer profitable.
This is why I've been spending more time focusing on the on-chain market recently. Keeta's success has ignited a desire among people to find the "next Keeta," and funds are starting to chase similar "fair launch narrative" tokens. Just like that big shot from Bonk made a 10-figure sum off meme coins—attention will guide capital flow.
So, if meme coins are no longer the next hot topic... then what's next? I believe: AI × Crypto.
If you have been following my previous movements, you would know that in this round, besides early investments in SOL and some VC tokens, I have also focused on AI and meme coins.
Just like the "Summer of DeFi" back in the day, most early AI projects died after the hype, but those with real applications are quietly building during the bear market.
As the profits from meme coins fade, attention will naturally turn to new narratives—and AI has obvious practicality, making it a great candidate for the next hot topic.
Many AI × Crypto projects are also fairly launched, very similar to Keeta's approach.
Therefore, during this quiet period in the market, I am actively researching and laying out plans in this sector. There is no need to rush into large positions now, but I firmly believe: if there is another major market movement, the greatest wealth opportunities will emerge here.
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The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
What new narratives are worth following as indicators for the next bull run?
Author: Joshua Source: X, @JoshuaDeuk Translation: Shan Ouba, Golden Finance
It's the weekend, and I have more time to think, so I want to share some thoughts on the market with everyone. I believe that the directional trend of the crypto market will not arrive before September.
Considering the macroeconomic resistance, summer liquidity tightness, and quarterly position adjustments, the real market trend will only commence after the August holidays, when market participants return.
From recent market activity, the rebound of most altcoins (except BTC) is actually driven by short covering.
Many traders have become accustomed to the "rebound → chasing the rise" rhythm from previous times, so they rushed in as well — but this time there are few true long-term holders, and most people have already been hurt in the market once before. Because of this, most tokens that experienced a sharp rise quickly faced a rapid correction.
Ethereum has surprisingly rebounded well, while the AI and meme sectors, which had previously seen the steepest declines, have become the leaders in the rebound.
At the same time, those tokens that are supported by real value, have strong fundamentals, or possess a repurchase mechanism are more resilient—they are more resistant to declines during downturns and recover faster during rebounds.
For example, Syrup, Hype, and AAVE are good examples. Although SPX is a meme coin, it is structurally completely different.
From these phenomena, we can draw several conclusions:
1. The demand for Bitcoin is real and ongoing
Traditional capital is gradually entering through ETFs and other regulated channels. The capital nature supporting Bitcoin is fundamentally different from previous cycles. This is why the likelihood of large-scale Bitcoin liquidations (chain liquidations caused by open contracts) is relatively low, unless triggered by macro events.
2. The differentiation between altcoins will further expand
In the end, capital will flow back into altcoins - but not in a widespread rally. Only tokens with clear practicality and real use cases may receive such inflows. This is why I believe Ethereum will outperform Solana in the future. Regulatory clarity, the growing usage of DeFi, a deflationary structure, and staking demand together create a powerful flywheel. Moreover, due to Ethereum's long-term underperformance, there are still marginal buyers observing from the sidelines.
3. Structural Risks Exist for Tokens Supported by VC
The release of pressure continues to be unlocked, which will weigh on price performance. When there is insufficient liquidity, the selling pressure from validating nodes and early investors will limit the upside potential. Therefore, those tokens that are listed on CEX and have inflated valuations are less worth participating in the future. Especially for Cosmos ecosystem tokens, due to their incentive structure, they will continue to face selling pressure from validating nodes.
4. In this environment, meme coins once had structural advantages
It is a pure emotional and attention play—just like during the early bull markets, and it really worked. But I think this phase is coming to an end.
The TGE of Pump.fun and the launch of Trump Coin may mark the peak of attention. After that, the market's interest in meme coins began to wane.
Even during the market wave in April, SOL couldn't outperform ETH—when everyone already holds it, who can take over and push the meme to continue rising?
Of course, some meme coins may still perform, especially those that can go viral on platforms like TikTok and Instagram, such as projects led by influential figures (like Murad). These coins may also create asymmetric wealth opportunities. But the era of "cute dog and cat coins = wealth code" is over. Only those meme coins with strong narratives and consensus still have real speculative value.
5. Ironically: people's fatigue towards VC coins has instead opened the door to wealth for fairly launched Web2/3 projects
Keeta is a great example.
But to seize such opportunities, you must truly be active on the chain. Because real opportunities always come from moments of information asymmetry. Once everyone knows, it is no longer profitable.
This is why I've been spending more time focusing on the on-chain market recently. Keeta's success has ignited a desire among people to find the "next Keeta," and funds are starting to chase similar "fair launch narrative" tokens. Just like that big shot from Bonk made a 10-figure sum off meme coins—attention will guide capital flow.
So, if meme coins are no longer the next hot topic... then what's next? I believe: AI × Crypto.
If you have been following my previous movements, you would know that in this round, besides early investments in SOL and some VC tokens, I have also focused on AI and meme coins.
Therefore, during this quiet period in the market, I am actively researching and laying out plans in this sector. There is no need to rush into large positions now, but I firmly believe: if there is another major market movement, the greatest wealth opportunities will emerge here.