(Morning) Yesterday's US market passed the FOMC without incident, with the three major indices showing slight fluctuations in mixed directions | Market Overview | Manekuri, a media outlet providing investment information and financial assistance from Monex Securities.

【US Stock Market】New York Market

NY Dow: 42,171.66 ▼44.14 (6/18)

NASDAQ: 19,546.27 △25.18 (6/18)

1. Overview

In the US market yesterday, the three major indices fluctuated slightly with mixed results. The Federal Reserve (FRB) decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged, as expected by the market, during the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting held from June 17 to 18. Additionally, the policy interest rate outlook (dot plot) from FOMC participants maintained a median forecast level indicating two rate cuts of 0.25% by the end of 2025. Chairman Powell stated that "despite the uncertainty, the economy remains strong," and reiterated a cautious approach towards rate cuts amid a robust labor market, which led to selling in some major stocks. Furthermore, concerns over the situation in the Middle East continued to weigh on the market.

The Dow average opened trading up 20 points at $42,236, then expanded its gains to rise as much as 294 points to $42,510. After hitting the high, selling became dominant, reducing the gains, and towards the end of trading, it turned down, hitting a low of $42,118, down 97 points. Ultimately, it ended trading down 44 points at $42,171, marking a slight continuation of the decline.

Additionally, the S&P 500 stock index closed down 1 point at 5,980 points, experiencing a slight decline. On the other hand, the Nasdaq Composite Index, which has a high proportion of tech stocks, closed up 25 points at 19,546 points, showing a slight rebound.

2. Economic Indicators, etc.

In May, the number of US housing starts was 1.256 million, falling short of market expectations and previous results. The number of new unemployment insurance claims in the US for the week decreased by 5,000 from the previous week to 245,000, exceeding market expectations (244,000).

3. Industry Trends

In the S&P 500 sector-specific stock price index, four sectors including Information Technology, Utilities, Real Estate, and Financials experienced a slight increase among the total of 11 sectors. On the other hand, seven sectors including Energy, Communication Services, and Materials saw a decline of less than 1%.

4. Individual Stock Trends

In the Dow average components, 15 out of the 30 stocks rose, particularly Goldman Sachs [GS], JPMorgan Chase [JPM], Merck [MRK], and American Express [AXP], which all rose by more than 1%. On the other hand, 15 stocks fell, especially Visa [V], which dropped nearly 5%. Additionally, Boeing [BA], Salesforce [CRM], Johnson & Johnson [JNJ], and Amazon.com [AMZN] fell by more than 1%.

Outside of the Dow average constituent stocks, the US Senate's approval of a bill establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins was positively received, leading to a 16.3% increase in Coinbase [COIN], making it the top gainer in the S&P 500 index constituents. Additionally, Genworth Financial [GNW], which deals in mortgage insurance, rose 13.7% after analysts upgraded their investment recommendation. On the other hand, Mastercard [MA] fell 5.4% due to concerns over intensified competition arising from the expansion of stablecoin usage, making it the worst performer in the S&P 500 index constituents. Furthermore, Zoetis [ZTS], which specializes in animal pharmaceuticals, dropped 4.1% following a downgrade in investment recommendations and target stock prices by analysts.

5. Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, etc.

The US long-term interest rate ended trading flat at 4.39%, unchanged from the previous day. The dollar-yen is trading around 145 yen.

VIEW POINT: Today's Perspective

In yesterday's US Stock Market, the major three indices fluctuated slightly after the FOMC. Given that the Japanese market has reached a four-month high due to continuous gains up to the previous day, it is expected to start softly with profit-taking and position adjustments likely to occur.

On the other hand, as the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), which have a high ratio of tech stocks, maintained a positive territory in the US market, it seems that semiconductor stocks and others are likely to attract buying in the Japanese market as well, making the downside firm.

(Monex Securities Financial Intelligence Department, Kohei Oka)