The market panic triggered by the U.S. military's involvement is just the fuse; the real "thunder" is buried deeper in the economic logic.

The lifeblood of oil is threatened
If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked by Iran, international oil prices could soar to $150 per barrel, and the severe inflation pressure will force the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, or even restart rate hikes.
Policy expectation reversal
The market originally bet on two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, but inflation triggered by war may cause the easing policy to "die in the womb," with the high interest rate environment continuing to drain liquidity from the cryptocurrency market.
Trump's tariff "bomb"
If the United States expands its tariffs on China, the turmoil in the global trade system will exacerbate the volatility of Bitcoin, creating a dual blow of "geopolitics + policy." As QCP Capital warns: the "dual tail risk" of war and inflation may continue to pressure Bitcoin in the second half of the year.

After Bitcoin fell below the key support level of $101,000, market divisions have reached a boiling point: retail investors are panic selling.
In the past 24 hours, 240,000 people have been liquidated, with long positions accounting for 89%, and leveraged traders have become "cannon fodder."
Institutions quietly accumulate shares
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) premium rate has rebounded from -20% to -15%, indicating that institutions are accumulating positions at lower prices through compliant channels.
Technical Lifeline
$100,000 is both a trading congestion zone since March 2025 and the support level of the lower Bollinger Band. If it is lost, it may drop to the annual low of $96,000.
Options market data exposes human nature's game more:
The 1-period call option premium rises by 8%, as retail investors bet on a rebound.
However, the implied volatility for the 6-month period is negative, indicating that institutions are extremely cautious about long-term risks.