Crypto Assets Market Weekly Report: BTC falls nearly 5%, global economy faces "reciprocal tariffs" challenge

This week, the Crypto Assets market has been affected by the turmoil in the global economic situation, and the price of Bitcoin (BTC ) has shown a significant decline. Starting at $82,379.98 at the beginning of the week, it ultimately closed at $78,370.75, with a weekly fall of 4.87% and an amplitude of 13.92%. It is worth noting that the BTC trading volume has increased significantly.

Currently, the BTC price is operating within a falling channel. After approaching the upper edge of the channel, it was affected by U.S. policies and experienced a breakout decline over the weekend. It is now temporarily stabilizing near the annual line (365-day moving average ).

The biggest shock in the global financial markets this week came from the "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by the U.S. President on April 2. This measure establishes a 10% global minimum baseline tariff, with additional tariffs of up to 34% imposed on certain countries. This policy far exceeded market expectations, triggering a chain reaction worldwide.

In response, the Chinese government announced a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the United States. The escalation of this trade dispute has caused panic in global capital markets, with the three major U.S. stock indexes experiencing significant declines this week. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 10.02%, 9.08%, and 7.86%, respectively. Over the course of the week, the market value of U.S. stocks evaporated by more than $5 trillion.

In this context, the Crypto Assets market has also not been able to remain unscathed. Data shows that this week, a total of $333 million has flowed out of the Crypto Assets market, with Bitcoin spot ETFs and stablecoins experiencing outflows of $178 million and $108 million, respectively. This breaks the previous trend of net inflows for four consecutive weeks.

On-chain data shows that the number of Bitcoins flowing into exchanges has reached 188,614.7 coins, indicating an increase in selling pressure. Short-term holders are selling off more aggressively, while long-term holders are selling relatively less. Notably, the number of BTC held by centralized exchange (CEX) increased by 3,116.1 coins this week, which may suggest that selling pressure is accumulating.

From the perspective of the holding group, short-term holders are currently under tremendous pressure, with the recent floating loss ratio reaching 16%, the highest level since this cycle began. In contrast, long-term holders continue to play a stabilizing role in the market, increasing their holdings by 53,300 BTC this week.

Looking ahead, unless there is a rebound in the US stock market or the Federal Reserve adopts easing policies such as interest rate cuts, the market is unlikely to gain sufficient upward momentum. Currently, the market expects the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June to exceed 90%. However, the recent remarks by the Federal Reserve Chairman still lean towards a hawkish stance, emphasizing that the US economy remains strong, but tariffs may drag on economic growth and inflation.

Overall, the global economy is undergoing a significant adjustment and repricing process. The impact of the "reciprocal tariff" policy may persist for a period of time, and the market needs to gradually confirm whether the pricing is sufficient and whether more severe situations will arise. For Crypto Assets investors, closely monitoring changes in the global macroeconomic situation and the progress of trade negotiations between the United States and other countries will be crucial.