Strategy pauses increasing holdings of Bitcoin, will the market迎来关键转折点?

Strategy CEO Michael Saylor recently tweeted, hinting that the company may pause its Bitcoin purchases. As the publicly listed company with the largest amount of Bitcoin holdings in the world, every move from Strategy draws significant market attention, especially after increasing its Bitcoin holdings for 13 consecutive weeks.

As of July 8, Strategy holds 597,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 2.84% of the total supply. This amount not only far exceeds that of other public companies but is also 2.3 times that of the total of the top 100 public companies (excluding Strategy). According to documents submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, as of June 30, the value of Strategy's digital assets reached $64.36 billion, with an average cost of $70,982 per coin. In the second quarter of 2025, the fair value of its Bitcoin appreciated by $14 billion.

Strategy is not only a major player in the Bitcoin market but also an important factor influencing market sentiment. Based on data since 2025, every time Strategy pauses purchases, it heralds a short-term market correction. Will this time be different?

In order to continuously purchase Bitcoin, Strategy requires a substantial amount of funds. The company has adopted a strategy of issuing preferred shares to raise capital. Since February 2025, Strategy has issued three types of preferred shares: STRF, STRK, and STRD, each with different yield mechanisms and risk priorities. The core of this structural design is to continuously attract new capital to support the company's ongoing purchase of Bitcoin while not excessively diluting the equity of common shareholders.

From the market performance perspective, the stock of Strategy (MSTR) significantly outperforms Bitcoin itself, especially driven by the recent "crypto US stock" craze. STRK and STRF, as earlier issued preferred stocks, also performed exceptionally well, while the later issued STRD similarly shows good potential.

It is worth noting that the executives of Strategy also participated in the company's preferred stock purchase. In March of this year, several executives, including the CEO and CFO, purchased the company's newly launched preferred stock at a price of $85. This "self-purchase" behavior is not only a signal but also indicates the company's strong expectations for future returns.

However, this high-leverage operation also brings risks. The strategy has raised nearly $10 billion through the ATM issuance of preferred shares, convertible bonds, and common stocks, almost all of which has been invested in Bitcoin. Although this operation amplifies the paper gains from the rise of Bitcoin, it also increases cash flow pressure, especially with the annual interest expenses of 8% to 10% brought by the preferred shares.

From a revenue perspective, Strategy's "self-sustaining" ability is relatively weak. In 2024, the company's software business revenue was only $463 million, setting a record low since 2010. The total revenue in the first quarter of 2025 was $111.1 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%. Although subscription service revenue has increased, the company still relies on "continuous financing" to maintain operations.

In addition, Strategy is facing the risk of a class action lawsuit. The company adopted new accounting standards for the first quarter of 2025, resulting in the disclosure of $5.9 billion in unrealized losses, which caused MSTR's stock price to plummet by 8% in that quarter. The company is accused of failing to timely and comprehensively disclose these loss risks and is currently facing a class action lawsuit.

Despite this, some analysts remain optimistic about Strategy. TD Cowen reiterated its "buy" rating on Strategy in its latest research report and maintained a target price of $590 per share. They believe that Strategy's "equity-BTC cycle" model enables it to use stock issuance revenue to purchase more Bitcoin, thereby driving up its stock price and facilitating further Bitcoin purchases, creating a virtuous cycle.

However, some analysts point out that this model works smoothly during a bull market, but once it enters a bear market, the company's debt structure, preferred stock dividends, and cash flow stability will face severe challenges.

Overall, Strategy is no longer a traditional technology company in the conventional sense, but more like a "Bitcoin high-leverage asset management platform" wrapped in software. Its future development highly depends on the sustained strength of Bitcoin prices and the stability of the external financing environment. The market will closely monitor Strategy's subsequent moves and the potential impact of these moves on the Bitcoin market.