Bitcoin hits a new all-time high, when will the alts follow?

Bitcoin recently broke through $123,000, setting a new historical high. However, the performance of other cryptocurrencies has been relatively flat. By analyzing the past three Bitcoin breakout trends, we can discover some interesting patterns that may provide insights for predicting the future trends of major cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple.

Currently, Bitcoin is in the price discovery phase, but the momentum of other cryptocurrencies seems to be stagnant, and there has not been a significant upward trend in large-cap coins. So, how will the market evolve after Bitcoin breaks through?

Looking back at the market since mid-2023, we can see that every time Bitcoin breaks through, it triggers a collective rebound of other cryptocurrencies:

• 30,000 to 44,000 USD
• 45,000 to 71,000 dollars
• 71,000 to 105,000 dollars

After these breakthroughs, other cryptocurrencies usually experience a rapid rise for 3-5 weeks. Subsequently, Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase, regaining its market dominance, while the gains of other cryptocurrencies are partially erased.

Currently, it seems we are in a similar situation:

Bitcoin has broken through the resistance level of $107,000, currently rising to $123,000, and is expected to challenge the $150,000 barrier. If historical patterns repeat, we may be at the starting point of a new cycle of rising altcoins.

However, it is important to note that this may not be a comprehensive rise lasting for months, but more like a short-term sprint. Bitcoin's market dominance has not fallen below key levels, so this cannot be seen as a full altcoin season.

However, if Bitcoin's market dominance does not continue to rise, other cryptocurrencies may still have the potential to increase. This is similar to the performance seen in the last two market cycles.

The trends of the three major mainstream cryptocurrencies, Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple, have shown significant divergence.

Ethereum lagged significantly behind Bitcoin at the end of 2023, but each subsequent dip has seen the bottom gradually rising.

Solana showed strong performance in the early stages, but its momentum is now close to stagnation.

Ripple initially performed weakly, but experienced explosive growth after last year's US election.

Signs of capital rotation have emerged

Currently, payment tokens have been launched, such as Ripple, Stellar, HBAR, IOTA, Algorand, XDC, etc. These "bank tokens" that comply with the ISO20022 standard are favored by investors.

Large-cap coins that have not yet launched are worth paying attention to:

• Token of a certain trading platform: The exchange rate against Bitcoin is close to the historical cycle low.
• A certain oracle project: Although it continues to decline, the fundamentals remain strong.
• A certain smart contract platform: is forming a long-term double bottom pattern.
• A certain public chain project: poised for takeoff
• A well-known meme coin: often explodes during Bitcoin's breakthrough cycle.

These may be the core targets for the next round of capital rotation.

If Solana begins to attract funding, its ecosystem tokens are also worth paying attention to:

BONK has surged by 89%, and PENGU has become the most popular Meme coin in the crypto social media space.

Other Layer 1 public chains may also experience relay market conditions, such as Sui, Aptos, and AVAX (which has not shown significant activation since November 2023).

TAO and PEPE performed well in 2023:

• TAO: Increased 14 times in 5 months
• PEPE: Increased 6.6 times against Bitcoin in 3 months

These projects demonstrate a strong narrative when Bitcoin rises; if a new hot narrative emerges, investors need to seize the opportunity in a timely manner.

Current Trading Strategy

• Pay attention to large well-known tokens
• Looking for unlaunched coins
• When leading projects launch, turn to strong narratives.
• Temporarily avoid small market cap coins to control risk

Capital rotation is key; do not blindly chase the rise.

Other cryptocurrencies may experience a strong cycle lasting 1 to 2 months, but historical experience reminds us: take profits at the right time and do not be overly greedy.

If Bitcoin surges to $150,000, the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization may collectively rise, and some assets may experience significant catch-up rallies.

It is recommended to operate rationally, hold strong tokens, and decisively abandon projects that perform poorly.

Maintain an optimistic attitude, but do not fall into blind enthusiasm. Closely monitor the changes in Bitcoin's market dominance and observe the activity of Bitcoin trading pairs.

Although it is not a frenzy cycle like in 2017 or 2021, it is still a relatively reliable investment window. Small-cap coins will eventually experience rotation, but patience is needed to wait for the right opportunity.