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As the Fed's key interest rate meeting approaches, the atmosphere in the financial markets becomes increasingly tense. Powell and his team will face a complex decision-making environment, with multiple factors intertwining making this meeting highly anticipated.
Political pressure continues to rise, trade policy remains uncertain, and economic indicators send mixed signals. These factors together create a complex economic landscape.
Next week will see the release of a series of important economic data, including GDP, employment reports, and the core inflation indicators closely watched by the Fed. Although the current market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, the upcoming data may have a significant impact on the policy direction.
Economists predict that the annualized GDP growth rate for the United States in the second quarter may reach 2.4%, a significant improvement compared to the 0.5% contraction in the first quarter. However, this growth is primarily attributed to the narrowing of the trade deficit, and its substantive impact remains to be further assessed.
The July non-farm payroll report is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, with the unemployment rate possibly rising slightly to 4.2%. This data may reflect a cooling in corporate hiring enthusiasm.
The core inflation indicator in the June personal income and expenditure report is expected to rise slightly month-on-month, indicating that the cost pressure from tariffs is gradually being transmitted to the consumer side, and inflationary pressures still exist.
The release of these densely packed economic data points, each of which could be a key factor influencing the Fed's decision-making. Even though the market currently generally expects no change in policy, any unexpected data could lead to significant adjustments in the Fed's policy direction.
In this uncertain economic environment, market participants will undoubtedly closely monitor the trends of every piece of data, as well as the policy responses that the Fed may make. In the coming week, financial markets will undergo a thrilling economic data game, the outcome of which will directly affect the trajectory of the economy in the United States and globally.