Pi Network: The mobile mining project has finally launched on the Mainnet, what is the valuation of the Token?

Pi Network is a cryptocurrency project based on mobile platforms, focusing on low-threshold participation. Unlike traditional Bitcoin Mining, which requires a lot of electricity and specialized equipment, Pi Network allows users to "mine" through a mobile application, greatly reducing the technical and cost barriers, enabling more ordinary users to participate in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

This project was established in 2019, but has not launched its Mainnet for a long time, and mobile Mining has been in a state of "mining air". In terms of the token acquisition mechanism, it focuses more on increasing one's mining share by recommending friends to use registration codes, which is more akin to a pyramid scheme promotion rather than the Mining of consensus mechanisms such as PoW and PoS in blockchain technology.

After six years of waiting, Pi Network has finally announced the launch of its Mainnet, and several trading platforms will also launch trading for its Token. So, how should we value Pi coin?

Pi Coin Supply Analysis

The Pi Network has not explicitly disclosed the final total supply limit of Pi coin, but based on community information and the white paper, it is generally believed that the maximum supply of Pi coin is approximately 100 billion tokens. This means that if each Pi coin is valued at 1 dollar, the fully diluted market capitalization would reach 100 billion dollars. As of the end of 2024, Pi is still in the closed period of the mainnet and has not fully opened for trading, with a limited actual circulating supply. According to on-chain data:

• August 2023: Approximately 1.97 billion Pi migrated to the Mainnet (of which 1.29 billion are locked)
• September 2024: The cumulative migrated supply of the Mainnet increased to approximately 4.07 billion coins (with 1.35 billion coins locked), a growth of 106.6% in just over a year.
• January 2025: A total of 5.56 billion tokens have been migrated to the mainnet, with approximately 660 million still locked, and the supply has increased by 36.6% within three months.

The Pi white paper mentioned that by the time the mainnet is launched, users may have mined 10-20 billion Pi. This means that the actual circulating supply in the early stages may only account for a small portion of the total, and most Pi coins will gradually be produced through mining over time. The supply will be controlled in the short term, but there will be significant inflationary pressure in the long term.

Market Demand and User Data

Since the launch of the mobile mining application by Pi Network in 2019, it claims to have attracted tens of millions of users worldwide. According to the project team, there are over 60 million registered users globally. However, only a portion of these are real users who have completed KYC verification. In 2023, it was officially stated that about 12 million users passed the KYC verification. By early 2025, the on-chain data shows that the total number of Mainnet wallets is only about 9.11 million, accounting for only 15% of the claimed users.

This indicates that despite the large number of registrations, the proportion of truly active users who have completed the migration to the chain is limited.

The daily activity situation also reflects actual demand. According to data from the blockchain explorer, the average number of active wallets on the Pi Mainnet is about 20,000 per day, with a peak of approximately 42,000 reached in January 2025. Compared to the official claim of tens of millions of users, this level of activity is relatively low.

Pi Token Valuation Model Analysis

Based on the above information, we can attempt to establish several valuation models for Pi币 to estimate its price range. Common cryptocurrency valuation approaches include "market capitalization" and "over-the-counter trading price."

Market Cap Estimate:

Assuming the total supply of tokens is 100 billion, with an estimated circulation of 10 billion:

1. Benchmarking Dogecoin: If Pi can replicate DOGE's success, based on DOGE's current market value of 40 billion dollars, the value of Pi Token could reach 4 dollars.

2. Entering the top 50 by market capitalization: The current market cap of the coin ranked 50th is approximately $2.7 billion. If Pi can open in the top 50, the token price will be around $0.27.

3. Entering the top 100 by market cap: The current market cap of the coin ranked 100th is approximately $920 million. If Pi can open in the top 100, the Token value could reach $0.092.

Off-exchange trading price reference:

• In some regions, there were early rumors that the private acquisition price of Pi coin was at the level of several yuan.
• In some foreign communities, there are people willing to privately trade small amounts of Pi at a valuation of $5-10, mainly based on the expectation of appreciation after it goes public.
• Some merchants and users accept Pi coin in exchange for goods or services, implicitly valuing each Pi at between 1 to 3 dollars.

The market valuation of Pi coin will depend on the supply and demand game and confidence consensus:

• Supply aspect: The initially limited circulation may drive up prices, but in the long run, the total supply of 100 billion coins is a significant challenge.
• Demand aspect: Hundreds of thousands to millions of active token holders will be the foundation of Pi coin's value. After the exchange goes live, the behavior of these users will directly affect the market capitalization trend.
• Market Positioning: If Pi Network can prove that it has genuine blockchain technology and applications, it may achieve a higher valuation. Otherwise, it may face a decrease in value.

The valuation of Pi coin currently has a significant degree of uncertainty, and short-term fluctuations could be drastic. It is recommended to pay attention to the following indicators to assess the valuation trend of Pi coin:

• The trading volume and turnover rate in the first week of launch
• Mainnet Unlock Progress
• Pi ecosystem application landing situation
• Overall cryptocurrency market trend

One of the key features of Pi Network is its strong community cohesion. The project has established a hierarchical structure through an invitation mechanism, incentivizing users to participate continuously. After six years of operation, most community members have become staunch supporters, with some even stating they will not sell immediately after launch. This unique community characteristic may have a significant impact on the initial valuation of Pi coin, but it also increases the unpredictability of price movements.

Overall, the Pi Network is likely to experience significant price fluctuations in its early stages. Investors should carefully assess the risks and closely monitor the project's development and market dynamics.