Macroeconomic Review and Outlook for This Week

1. Macro Review of This Week

1. Market correction expectations, defensive sentiment dominates

• US stocks generally retraced, with the utilities sector rising against the trend, as funds flow into defensive assets.
• VIX remains above 20, and market sentiment is still in a cautious adjustment phase.

2. Diversification of the product market, rising risk aversion sentiment

• Gold has broken through $3000 per ounce to reach a new high, and copper prices have risen by 3.9%, indicating that there is still demand support in the manufacturing sector.
• Crude oil prices remain stable, but net futures positions have decreased, reflecting market concerns about global demand growth.

3. The cryptocurrency market is adjusting synchronously, and Bitcoin still has long-term allocation value.

• Short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin has eased, while long-term support comes from the liquidity environment.
• Other cryptocurrencies are underperforming, market risk appetite is declining, and the inflow of stablecoin funds is slowing.

4. The impact of tariffs is becoming evident, and the global supply chain is accelerating its adjustments.

• The BDI index has risen, indicating an acceleration in manufacturing activities in the Asia-Europe region, while the US transportation index has declined, showing weak domestic demand.
• The trend of supply chain restructuring is obvious, and the domestic economy in the United States is under pressure.

5. Inflation data cools, but inflation expectations are diverging.

• CPI and PPI are below expectations, reinforcing market expectations for interest rate cuts, but consumer inflation expectations are rising, indicating a significant divergence.
• The divergence between actual data and expectations increases market uncertainty.

6. Liquidity easing, but credit market risks are increasing.

• Outflow from the Ministry of Finance account, decrease in the use of discount windows, liquidity remains stable.
• The credit spread is widening, CDS is rising, and market concerns over corporate and government debt are intensifying, which may suppress the performance of risk assets.

2. Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week

1. Key variables in the market next week

• FOMC Meeting: Focus on the dot plot's guidance for interest rate cuts (2-3 rate cut expectations).
• Whether QT will pause will become the market focus, potentially affecting market risk appetite.
• Retail data and global central bank dynamics.

2. Strategy Recommendations

• U.S. stocks: Reduce high-risk assets, increase holdings in defensive sectors, and pay attention to opportunities where quality assets are mispriced.
• Crypto Market: Long-term holding of Bitcoin, reducing allocations to other cryptocurrencies, and observing stablecoin liquidity.
• Credit Market: Reduce high-leverage corporate debt, increase high-rated bonds, and be cautious of the risk of US debt deficit.
• Key inflection signals: Repair of the credit market or clearer easing signals from the Federal Reserve.

The market is still looking for a new balance point. Investors need to remain cautious and seize potential opportunities for high-quality assets that may be mispriced when the market overreacts.