The Evolution of Economic Models in Web3 Applications: From Ponzi to Sustainability

Recently, I participated in an online discussion about blockchain game assets. During the discussion, one guest bluntly stated that the lifecycle of current GameFi projects is too short, primarily due to many adopting a Ponzi scheme model. This sparked deep reflections on the economic models of Web3 applications.

In fact, the Ponzi model is an inevitable path for Web3 applications in their early stages and is also a transitional form. More precisely, there are reasons why the vast majority of Web3 application projects adopt the Ponzi economic model in their initial stage.

To predict whether Web3 can disrupt Web2 with a completely new business model, it is essential to study its economic model in depth. Although the term "disrupt" is often misused, based on recent understanding, I believe that Web3 does have the potential to achieve some degree of disruption to Web2 in the future. Even if it ultimately does not materialize, maintaining this belief can help investors maintain a long-term holding mindset.

The evolution of business models over the past few decades can be roughly divided into three stages:

The first stage is the direct relationship between the product side and the user. Before the rise of the internet, users simply paid for the basic functions of the product, and the relationship was one-way.

In the second stage, platform providers emerged. With the popularization of the internet, platform providers leveraged their technological advantages to gather users, becoming intermediaries that connect product providers and users. Platform providers profit by charging product providers and placing advertisements. Early platforms often attracted users through subsidies, with funds coming from investment institutions, as investors believed that in the future, product providers would pay for this.

The third stage is the Web3 era, where decentralized systems replace centralized platforms. This system, composed of various protocols, embodies the characteristics of Web3 such as decentralization, privacy protection, and consensus verification. Users can autonomously control their assets and information, and participate in governance decisions.

However, current Web3 applications are still in the early stages, and real product providers have not yet emerged. Most projects only exist in the relationship between "decentralized systems and users," lacking roles that ultimately pay for the overall ecosystem. This has led to the current Web3 applications having to rely on a Ponzi scheme model of users competing against each other to sustain.

Currently, there are no phenomenon-level products in Web3 similar to Alipay or WeChat. For ordinary users, the actual problems and pain points that Web3 applications can solve are still unclear. Whether it's DeFi, SocialFi, or GameFi, it is difficult to provide sufficient motivation for Web2 users to use them.

This does not mean that Web3 is a false proposition. In fact, Web3 is in the early stages of infrastructure development, lacking mature product parties. Looking back over the past five years, Web3 has gradually evolved from simple public chains and tokens into functional modules such as DeFi, NFTs, and blockchain games.

DeFi has established a decentralized self-circulating system, NFTs are beginning to exhibit value accumulation characteristics, and blockchain games are exploring the integration of blockchain technology with traditional games. This evolutionary process may take a long time, much like how AI took over a decade to evolve from theoretical proposals to widespread application.

In the foreseeable future, the "decentralized system and user" model lacking genuine product parties will continue to exist, and the Ponzi scheme will persist. There is no right or wrong in the Ponzi scheme itself; the key lies in how to design a more elegant model.

Real product parties willing to enter the Web3 ecosystem may need to meet the following conditions: clear regulations globally,完善的基础设施和安全可靠, the decentralized concept is widely accepted, and pain points that Web2 cannot or finds difficult to solve emerge. Only under these conditions can Web3 applications truly break free from the purely Ponzi model and move towards a sustainable development path.