Bitcoin Weekend Analysis on Saturday 📊 (Forecast for the Next 48 Hours' Trends)

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Scenario 1: Weak Rebound (Probability 40%) Trigger Condition:
The price stabilized at $113,600 (the low before July 25), and the RSI has recovered from the oversold condition to above 40.
Institutions are buying on dips (such as ETF inflows turning positive) or whale addresses increasing their holdings (single day >5,000 BTC) 35.
Target price:
First resistance: $115,500 (MA120) → $116,200 (MA30), a breakout requires increased volume.
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Scenario 2: Downward Fluctuation (Probability 50%) Trigger Condition:
The price is constrained by MA120 ($115,500), the MACD death cross continues, and ETF funds are continuously flowing out.
The Federal Reserve's policy expectations suppress risk assets, and the earnings reports of tech stocks in the US convey negative signals.
Consolidation range: $112,000 (50-day moving average) – $115,500, waiting for the non-farm payroll data guidance on August 5.
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Scenario 3: Acceleration Breakout (Probability 10%) Trigger Condition:
The volume dropped below $112,000, triggering a series of liquidations of long positions (OI reached $4.45 billion).
Geopolitical conflicts escalate or regulatory headwinds (such as SEC delaying ETF approvals) 59.
Target level: $110,000 (psychological barrier) → $107,000 (Ali Martinez predicted support level) 1
⚠️ Key macro events for risk monitoring:
August 5th US non-farm payroll data: If the unemployment rate >4.0% or hourly wage growth slows, it may ease rate hike expectations 39.
Federal Reserve officials speak: Pay attention to Powell's weekend remarks, hawkish comments will suppress rebounds.
On-chain signal:
Miner wallet activity: If the daily transfer volume >3,000 BTC, it indicates further selling.
Funding rate: a negative value expanding (<-0.01%) may trigger a short squeeze reversal, caution is needed 1.

💎 The ultimate conclusion is that the short-term downside risk of Bitcoin has not been eliminated, with MA120 ($115,500) becoming the key barrier for bullish and bearish reversal.
🟢 Bullish opportunity: Stabilize above $113,600 and break through $115,500 with volume, you can take a light position to speculate on a rebound.
🔴 Bearish Dominance: Prices continue to stay below MA120, rebounds present short opportunities, with a stop loss set at $116,200.
Strategy Period: Valid for the next 48 hours, needs to be adjusted based on the liquidity dynamics of the US market on August 2-3. Warning: Weekend trading volume shrinks by 20%-30%, beware of spike markets, leverage recommendation ≤3x!