Recently, the policy direction of the Bank of Japan has attracted widespread attention in the market. There are signs that a policy adjustment may occur as early as October, and this topic has sparked heated discussions in the financial circles.

There are several factors that encourage the market to hold an optimistic attitude towards policy adjustments. First, the conclusion of the US-Japan trade agreement has alleviated external uncertainties, creating some room for adjustments in the Bank of Japan's policies. Second, domestic economic indicators, especially inflation data, are showing positive signals. In the meeting at the end of July, the Bank of Japan raised its core CPI forecast for 2025 from 2.2% to 2.7%, and for the first time indicated that inflation risks are "generally balanced"; this change in wording reflects the rising inflationary pressures.

The changes in the labor market are also worth noting. The non-manufacturing sector is facing a serious labor shortage, and companies generally have the willingness to raise salaries. The market anticipates that wage negotiations in the spring of next year may see an increase of over 4.5%, which will further support the level of inflation.

The financial markets reacted positively to this. Barclays has moved its interest rate hike expectation from January next year to October this year, and Nomura Securities has also raised the probability of an interest rate hike in October from 30% to 40%. A survey shows that 42% of economists believe there may be a policy adjustment in October, a significant increase from before.

However, the cautious remarks made by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda have cooled market expectations. At a press conference, he emphasized that uncertainty remains high, suggesting that the current situation has not yet reached the level that necessitates raising interest rates. This statement caused the yen to briefly fall below 150 against the US dollar. Nevertheless, analysts at Nomura believe that the overall policy stance still leans towards a "hawkish" position.

Currently, there is still uncertainty about whether there will be substantial policy adjustments in October. Market participants need to closely monitor subsequent economic data and the statements of Central Bank officials to better grasp the direction of policy.