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The latest non-farm payroll data for July released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics surprised the market with a big dump. The number of new jobs added was only 73,000, far below the analysts' expectations of 110,000. Even more noteworthy is that the Bureau significantly revised down the employment data for the previous two months. The job growth for June plummeted from the original 147,000 to 14,000, while May was revised down from 144,000 to 19,000. This means a total reduction of 258,000 jobs over the two months.
The statistics bureau explained that this huge discrepancy stems from changes in the questionnaire response rate and seasonal adjustments. However, this explanation seems to have failed to quell doubts from various parties. Reports indicate that some senior government officials are dissatisfied with this result, even hinting at possible suspicions of data manipulation.
The financial markets reacted strongly to this news. The US stock market generally fell by 1-2% at the close on Friday. However, the deterioration of employment data also brought a glimmer of hope: the market's expectation of the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged from 45% to 75%. This expectation may alleviate the market's pessimism to some extent.
Currently, the U.S. economy is in a critical period. Employment data, as an important indicator of economic health, will undoubtedly trigger in-depth discussions about the economic outlook due to its fluctuations. The future direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the government's economic stimulus measures, and changes in the global economic environment will all become key factors affecting the U.S. job market and overall economic trends.
In the face of this complex situation, investors and policymakers need to remain vigilant and closely monitor changes in subsequent economic indicators in order to timely adjust strategies to cope with potential economic risks.