Under-explored prediction market vertical: Force Majeure events

Natural disasters cause trillions in economic damage every year.

Floods, fires, earthquakes, tsunamis.

Insurance companies already write tens of billions in policies for these “force majeure” events. But prediction markets? Totally absent at scale.

The problem is, the average person has no way to see the odds.

All the data sits with insurers, reinsurers, and a few academics.

Imagine if you could hedge your livelihood against a wildfire, a flood, or a hurricane without waiting for an insurer to give you a quote.

Some examples from just the last few years:

1. Texas flash floods (July 2025): $18–22B damage
2. Southern California wildfires (2025): ~$250B damage & economic loss
3. Maui wildfires (2023): $5.5B damage
4. Camp Fire, California (2018): $16.5B damage

These events wipe out businesses, homes, and livelihoods.

The insurance industry can model and price them. Why can’t everyone else?

A natural-disaster prediction market lets you:
- See real-time crowd-driven odds
- Hedge against local risks
- Turn your knowledge of weather patterns & geography into an edge

It’s rightfully illegal to make markets on man-made disasters. But natural disasters? Those are fair game.

Feels like a $100B+ untapped vertical for prediction markets.