Cardano Reclaims $1 as Bullish Signals Multiply

Cardano (ADA) has returned to the $1 level for the first time in more than five months, drawing heightened attention from traders and long-term investors. A combination of technical indicators, on-chain activity, and speculation over a potential exchange-traded fund is fueling expectations for a significant rally.

ETF Speculation and Institutional Interest

Optimism around an ADA-based ETF has surged, with some estimates placing the probability of approval as high as 80%. Grayscale recently filed for an ETF that would include both HBAR and ADA, a move analysts say could channel substantial institutional capital into Cardano.

Investor engagement with the network continues to grow, with the number of ADA-holding wallets surpassing 3.1 million. Data from TapTools also shows futures traders on Hyperliquid are more bullish on ADA than on major peers including XRP, Solana, Ethereum, and Bitcoin.

Technical Patterns Point to Breakout Potential

From a technical perspective, ADA is approaching a decisive resistance zone. Analyst Ali projects a possible surge to $1.50 if the current ceiling is breached, noting that the price structure resembles an earlier cycle that preceded a sharp rally.

One key development is the emergence of a “Golden Cross,” where the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average. Historical precedent shows that the last occurrence of this signal preceded a 230% price increase. Analysts such as Tom Crown suggest a similar setup now could send ADA toward $1.687, while others see potential for a run to $3 if momentum accelerates.

Whale Accumulation and Strengthening Metrics

On-chain analysis reinforces the bullish view. Research from Alphractal highlights that long-term holders have steadily accumulated ADA since 2021, with minimal signs of distribution. Recent days have also seen whales acquire over 200 million ADA, signaling confidence from large investors.

Risk-adjusted return measures, including the adjusted Sharpe ratio, are trending higher, suggesting improved profit potential without excessive volatility. Analysts note that current conditions do not yet reflect market euphoria, leaving room for further upside.

A Pivotal Moment for ADA

With strong technical patterns, robust on-chain fundamentals, and rising institutional interest, Cardano may be entering a defining phase. If bullish factors align, ADA could challenge its all-time highs in 2025, potentially shifting from a high-potential altcoin to a central force in the broader cryptocurrency market.