#美7月PPI年率高于预期#

Inflation is rising on the production side, and the Federal Reserve may be forced to "hold steady."
The U.S. July PPI year-on-year was higher than expected, marking a new flashpoint in the inflation battleground. As a price indicator on the production side, PPI is often a leading signal for CPI, and rising prices upstream mean that downstream will inevitably "take over".
For the Federal Reserve, this data is like a cloud on a sunny day—initially prepared to cut interest rates to relax the economy, now it has to worry whether the influx of money will flood the dam of price stability. The interest rate futures market reacted immediately, with expectations for a rate cut in September weakened, and funds began to bet again that any actions may only occur at the end of the year.
From a structural perspective, the recent rise in PPI is driven by the rebound in energy prices and the recovery of some manufacturing demand. This situation puts the toolbox of monetary policy in a bit of a dilemma: raising interest rates is unlikely to lower energy prices, while lowering interest rates may stimulate demand and make inflation more stubborn.
In the short term, the Federal Reserve may choose to "stay put," observing subsequent data while avoiding excessive excitement in the market. Investors might as well rein in their FOMO emotions, as the current direction of interest rates is more worth paying attention to than the short-term rebound in the stock market.