As soon as the market experiences a big pump, there are predictions about how much it will rise in the future, and a bull run will break out.

As long as the market falls for several consecutive days, there will be predictions about how much it will drop next, and the bull run is about to end.
In the past couple of days, the leading cryptocurrency has seen a pullback, and some people are starting to say that this round is a trap for the bulls, predicting a significant decline ahead. When it rises, they are bullish, and when it falls, they turn bearish; do we really need professional analysis for that? Isn't it enough to just buy and sell based on the market trends? The answer is clearly no; otherwise, anyone could make money.
A bull run is a relay race, not a sprint. Each cycle of rise in the crypto market has its own internal operational context. Grasping this context is often more critical than fixating on the charts, as it can indicate where the funds are currently flowing and where you should focus your layout. To survive in the crypto world for the long term, it relies on thinking about the underlying logic to judge future trends, rather than judging future prices through short-term market movements.
For most friends who are new to the circle, the anxiety of holding positions will actually always exist, especially now that they have just seen hope and their accounts are showing unrealized gains. Many people fail to achieve significant results because they experience psychological problems during this high volatility period, leading to reckless operations. Either they listen to others saying they want to make a small swing, or they hear someone wanting to open a short position, or they hear someone saying to chase certain worthless coins. They always listen to others, but they lack independent thinking and an operational plan.
Not long ago, ETH rose from 1400 to 4700, and some people in the discussions started predicting that ETH would go to 8k, 10k, or even 20k. In fact, most people who are optimistic about ETH now were still complaining about ETH a few months ago, praising SOL instead, thinking that this second-tier coin was rubbish and would definitely fall below 1K. As seasoned investors, we have experienced too many of these scenarios. Indeed, everyone has the right to express their opinions, but some shouts in public are profit-driven. If you blindly follow along with your hard-earned money without thinking, subscription fees might earn you a little, commission rebates might earn you a little, and liquidation losses might earn them a little. Have you heard of the left hand and right hand both holding positions?
If you don't, just try a few times and you'll understand.
A long time ago, we talked about the reasons for the market's stagnation. First, the interest rate cut cycle of 2025 has not yet begun. Second, the trading volume of contracts has already surpassed that of spot trading, and the market's trading methods are completely different from before. The current time node is the most torturous; seasoned investors know that when the price reaches this level, it is the turning point where the bulls and bears call each other fools. The market at this critical point allows those who are firmly bullish to see hope, while also giving the brave short-sellers the courage to roll up their sleeves and work hard. If there were no glimmer of hope, how would anyone place a bet?
In terms of market trend analysis, we have actually discussed a lot before. Currently, the weekly chart is in a bull run, and the overall direction has not yet peaked. The daily chart shows a short-term correction, and it should continue to fluctuate and correct in the next few days. I will wait for the market's psychological support levels at round numbers to see when a stop-loss reversal signal appears. For BTC, I am looking at 11W, and for ETH, I am looking at 4K. If these values are reached, even if they break below, I will activate my small position for short-term trades and make small swings.
As for the long-term positions, the necessary adjustments have been completed, and the bullets for short positions are ready. Most of the cryptocurrencies held have yielded quite normal returns, and as for how the final returns will turn out, we can only leave it to time to verify.
Unknowingly, we have arrived at mid-August. BTC and ETH have slowly climbed up from the low point in early April during the Qingming Festival. After four months, according to past cycles, after the bull run starts, it usually takes about 5-6 months to reach the peak. This means that if we rely on the trends from the previous cycle at this moment, the final peak may appear in the next two months.
Although some well-known analysts believe that, considering the current economic environment and institutional holdings, this bull market cycle could extend into the first half of 2026, and BTC and ETH may even experience a "long and exhausting" bull run, there is a certain probability to this claim. However, many retail investors actually do not hold these two leading coins. Even seasoned investors were significantly affected when ETH experienced a large retracement in the first half of the year, leaving behind a considerable portion. Therefore, regarding this expectation, I suggest that you create a data model based on your own positions. First, set a target selling price, and under the premise of ensuring profits, periodically DCA your sales. Even if the highest price you anticipated does not materialize, keeping a portion of your positions for long-term holding of these two coins may not be a bad thing. Perhaps during Trump's term, you might be surprised!
In fact, what everyone fears the most is that there won't be a clear altcoin season next, or that the altcoins in hand will only have a fleeting moment, or that they will remain stagnant. I have always believed that there will still be an altcoin season. There have been several discussions about this in the previous updates, and I have intermittently chatted with some friends in the comments section, and everyone believes that the probability of an altcoin bull run occurring is quite high. However, if you haven't positioned yourself in mainstream altcoins by now, the upcoming time will likely have little to do with you.
Why do I still believe that there will be a bull run in the altcoin season? I整理了一下思路，and let's analyze the following four directions together as to why the altcoin market in the fourth quarter of 2025 is still worth looking forward to.
First of all, from the perspective of market sentiment, the consensus is still clear: every round of bull run is driven by BTC pulling in funds, which then flow to ETH, and finally spread to smaller market cap altcoins. This is not a manipulation but a natural phenomenon resulting from market consensus and human greed. The cyclical pattern of this fund flow will not change due to individual will. As long as there is a consensus on the cyclical nature of bull and bear markets, and as long as investors still have greed and fear, the altcoin season will inevitably come.
You might say that this is a bull run led by institutions, and institutions look down on those altcoins. After experiencing the market in 2024-2025, I increasingly understand that the world is just a makeshift stage, and institutions come in all sizes; institutions are also greedy. Are the funds under Trump considered institutions? Is Meitu Xiuxiu an institution? Even our disguised GJ team, are they institutions? The competition among institutions creates market volatility, and the competition among institutions will also increase the circulation of market chips. As long as there is heat and liquidity, capital tends to seek profit.
Capital always chases maximum returns, and a large amount of institutional funds has clearly accelerated the layout of the crypto market, especially since May, when there has been unprecedented capital inflow into ETH ecosystem-related projects, which has directly boosted market confidence and demand. When the valuations of BTC and ETH reach high levels, large-scale capital injections will drive up coin prices, but the return on investment continues to decline. At this time, capital will inevitably shift to smaller market cap altcoins that are easier to achieve short-term huge returns. This balance of returns and risks is the core logic driving the continuous flow of funds. Of course, it has been reminded several times before that institutional funds are likely to flow only into altcoins with higher market caps, having fundamental applications, high market ownership, good narratives, and a certain track record, especially those with attributes from beautiful countries that fit the ETF list.
Secondly, technology is a key factor driving the continuous flow of funds, as market capital always chases the latest hotspots. Each bull run brings new technology-driven and conceptual narratives, and new starting points attract the attention of retail investors, providing sufficient space for the speculation of altcoin markets. Although the emergence of inscriptions and MEME trends in 2024 has sacrificed a large number of retail investors, as we enter 2025, we can clearly feel the gradual rise of hotspots in multiple areas such as high-performance supply chain scaling solutions (L1 public chains), the combination of AI and blockchain, and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). These fields will provide new market expectations, making it easier to attract incremental funds from outside the market, looking for the next asset with the potential for a hundredfold growth.
Thirdly, reviewing the market trends from the end of 2023 to now, from the perspective of chip distribution, many quality mainstream altcoins have completed their chip accumulation, especially new public chains or high market cap functional coins. Large funds, through a year and a half of pump and dump, should have completed their low-position chip layout, which gives me a relatively clear and definite judgment on future trends.
Referencing XRP, TRX, SUI, BNB from 2024, and then observing ETH, ADA, LINK, UNI, LTC, AAVE, DOGE, PEPE, and other mainstream cryptocurrencies in 2025, if you can hold firm at this moment without too high expectations and patiently wait for changes in market sentiment and opportunities to resonate, there is a high probability that you can steadily and easily capture a 1-2x doubling market trend. However, it should be noted that now is not the best time to enter the market. Friends who have been paying attention to my updates for a long time will understand the reasons behind this.
Of course, you can also strategically allocate some leading projects in the ETH layer 2 ecosystem or other sectors, including ondo, op, ena, arb, pol, fil, ton, etc. However, these types of coins that rely on market hotspots for speculation and capital rotation carry much higher risks compared to the earlier high-market-cap established projects.
As for why XRP, SOL, BNB, TRX and the like are not recommended, it's because they have already been pumped in 2024, and the upside potential is limited, making the cost-performance ratio not very high.
Fourth, from a macroeconomic perspective, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is close to 95%, and the tariffs from the trade war have also been postponed. A clear trend of liquidity easing is emerging in the global economy, with major central banks continuing to release liquidity. While writing this, I also saw news of discussions between the presidents of Russia and Ukraine about a ceasefire. Aside from the interest rate hike in Japan, I can't think of any other black swan events that might occur in the future. Therefore, in the coming months, the overall funding environment in the market should be relatively loose, which will undoubtedly enhance the risk appetite of institutional funds.
When ETH hits the 5000 mark and sees a significant surge (like BTC breaking 73,000 and charging towards 100,000), several altcoins in the market will likely see daily surges of 100%-300%. Retail investors in the market will inevitably experience FOMO, and mainstream altcoins with higher consensus are likely to become the asset class that benefits the most in this environment.
The signs of this situation have actually appeared. The rise of OKB can be seen as a starting signal. Even if the current market experiences a relatively extreme 20%-30% pullback, I firmly believe that the overall direction will not change. The bull run is not over; it just needs to be extended. The high peaks of BTC and ETH are likely to appear again, and a localized altcoin bull run will surely come.
Of course, opportunities and risks coexist, and everyone has different personalities and positions. Therefore, I would still advise you to carefully consider rational decisions. Only after you have thoughtfully considered your operation plan and seriously simulated your operation strategy, will you likely be able to seize your bull run profits in the final frenzy.
Remember, the bigger the waves, the more expensive the fish ☕ I enjoy walking with friends who have high awareness. If you have different opinions, feel free to chat in the comments. #机构以太坊储备破1000万枚# (forward)