Does BTC really have a Thanksgiving curse? Statistics from the past ten years of historical data show that it will actually decline.

In the past ten years, the probability of BTC plummeting on Thanksgiving has surprisingly reached 70%. Can this curse be broken this time? (Background: Who is selling when the price of BTC drops to 90,000? Glassnode: 76,000-88,000 USD is a key short-term pullback level) (Background: Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire protocol! Both gold and BTC plummeted, does the hedge situation end?) Today is November 28, 2024, also Thanksgiving in the United States (the fourth Thursday in November every year), similar to the Chinese New Year's Eve reunion day. But did you know? Recently, many netizens have expressed that on Thanksgiving, BTC usually experiences a decline, because Thanksgiving marks the arrival of the Christmas shopping season, and investors in the United States and other Western countries may sell Cryptocurrency such as BTC for profit to celebrate the arrival of the holiday and vacation. The following statistics will show you the historical data of the past ten years to see if this is true. The probability of BTC plummeting on Thanksgiving is as high as 70%. According to Coinglass data, in the past 10 years (2014-2023), BTC fell 7 times out of 10 Thanksgiving, with a high probability of 70%, and only did not fall in 2014, 2015, and 2021. In terms of probability, it really seems to lean towards a decline. The blue-marked dates in the picture are Thanksgiving dates over the years. Picture source: Coinglass The probability of rising in November is 60%. However, in the past ten years, BTC only experienced a larger decline on Thanksgiving in 2020, 2018, and 2017, with a drop of 8.09%, 6.33%, and 3.07% respectively. Although it fell in other times, the decline was mostly within 1%, which may also be related to Western investors Close Position for the festival. In addition, in the past ten years, the probability of rising in November reached 60%, and so far, BTC has risen by more than 33% this month, ranking third in the monthly increase in the past ten years. BTC monthly return rate. Picture source: Coinglass Related reports Brazilian legislators proposed to include BTC in the national reserves: planning to invest 17.7 billion US dollars in hoarding BTC BTC arch-enemy Peter Schiff: Trump's support for BTC will only weaken the US economy, wasting tens of billions of dollars in taxes BTC price drops $90,800, the largest drop since Trump's election! Analyst: The market leverage is too heavy, but it is still a healthy pullback〈BTC actually has a Thanksgiving curse? Statistically, will it really plummet in the past ten years〉This article was first published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media in the dynamic area.