Fluctuation warning: The highly anticipated US CPI is about to strike. Will it give the green light for the Fed's rate cut in December?

The U.S. will release the November consumer price index (CPI) tonight, with the market focusing on its impact on the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision. The data could be a crucial indicator for determining whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December or January next year. (Previous context: Tokyo CPI exceeded expectations, causing a 120-point surge in the yen! Expectations of a rate hike in December in Japan are rising, beware of the turmoil in Arbitrage Close Position.) (Background: Higher than expected CPI in Japan, will there be a rate hike in December? Beware of the hot money leaving the yen in Arbitrage trades, reminiscent of the August stock market crash.) BTC has currently risen to the $98,000 level, with much attention to whether it can reclaim the $100,000 mark. The CPI data released by the U.S. at 9:30 tonight may impact the Fed's decision to cut interest rates again at the end of this year or in January next year, warning of potential increased Fluctuation risk. Core indicators for rate cuts: CPI data. The market currently estimates a 2.7% year-on-year increase in U.S. CPI for November, slightly higher than October's 2.6%. If the latest data can prove further slowing of inflation, it will enhance the market's confidence in a Fed rate cut. According to Morgan Stanley's analysis, the Fed may cut rates by 0.25 percentage points in December and January next year. Additionally, the recent activity in the federal funds futures market, with record-high Trading Volume for January and February contracts, also indicates a significant increase in investor expectations for rate cuts. Currently, the market estimates an 80% probability of a 0.2 percentage point rate cut by the Fed in December, significantly rising from last month's 64%. The probability of a rate cut rising to 86.1%. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the market's prediction probability for a one-point rate cut by the Fed in December has risen to 86.1%, with only a 13.9% probability of pausing rate cuts. Against the backdrop of upcoming policy decisions by Central Banks worldwide, the risk of Fluctuation in the market is increasing, and investors need to closely follow relevant developments. Source: FedWatch Tool. Preparing for rate cuts in advance. Morgan Stanley strategist Matthew Hornbach even suggests that investors can position themselves early, especially focusing on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 18. He recommends buying February federal funds futures contracts or using overnight index swap (OIS) Interest Rate strategies related to the January meeting. Furthermore, unexpectedly soft employment data last week further raised expectations of a rate cut in December. Financial market analyst Kyle Rodda stated, "If tonight's CPI data meets market expectations, it will signal a rate cut by the Fed and may even become a new catalyst for the gold market." Key Central Bank developments to follow next week. Additionally, next week is a super Central Bank week, with major Central Banks including the U.S., UK, and Japan holding decision meetings intensively, with particular focus on the decisions by the Fed and Japan. Currently, the Benchmark Interest Rate in the U.S. is 4.75%, Japan is 0.25%, and the UK is 4.75%. If the U.S. cuts interest rates and Japan raises them the next day, it could trigger international market Fluctuation, reenacting the August yen Arbitrage Close Position wave, so users should be aware of the risks. Yuichi Kodama, an economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute, pointed out, "The probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December has exceeded 50%, but the appreciation of the yen may postpone the hike until January next year." Related reports: Tokyo CPI exceeds expectations, causing a 120-point surge in the yen! Expectations of a rate hike in Japan in December are rising, beware of the turmoil in Arbitrage Close Position. Higher than expected CPI in Japan, will there be a rate hike in December? Beware of the hot money leaving the yen in Arbitrage trades, reminiscent of the August stock market crash. Controlled CPI inflation: BTC surges past $93,000 and then plunges $5,000, triggering liquidations of over 250,000 long and short positions. Fluctuation warning: U.S. CPI is set to make a heavy impact, can it signal a rate cut by the Fed in December? This article was first published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media outlet on the market.