After studying the macroeconomics for 20 years, the financial Seasoned Trader, which coins will they buy in this cycle?

For someone who has studied the overall economy for 20 years in TradFi, which coins will they buy in this cycle? Raoul Pal's answer is to allocate 90% of the funds to BTC, ETH, SOL, SUI, DOGE. In a recent podcast episode, this 'financial seasoned trader' shared his 'Crypto Millionaire Guide' - how to allocate assets and find potential coin types.

Raoul Pal: Cryptocurrencies are in the "banana zone"

Raoul Pal began his career in 1990; in 1997, he knocked on the door of Goldman Sachs, where he worked in hedge fund sales.

Five years later, he went to GLG to manage fund portfolios until 2005. In the same year, he founded Global Macro Investor, providing quantifiable and readable research for the global macro investment community, which continues to this day.

In addition, he founded a financial media platform called Real Vision in 2014 to help members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

As a staunch Bitcoin bull, Raoul Pal judged long before the US election: liquidity is entering the market, and the debt refinancing cycle driven by macroeconomic forces will affect all asset prices, but the performance of cryptocurrencies is particularly outstanding: the market will enter the "banana zone", where cryptocurrencies usually rise vertically.

As an investor, the simplest way is to allocate most of the assets to mainstream crypto coins, maintain a core investment portfolio, and then be patient and filter out external noise.

BTC vs ETH vs SOL, who will have the highest price increase?

Raoul Pal believes that the market cap of this cycle's cryptocurrency coins will reach 10 to 15 trillion US dollars, which may grow 5-7 times compared to the current (at the time of the interview) 2.2 trillion US dollars.

And he believes that SOL will outperform ETH, and ETH will outperform BTC: BTC will probably increase by 3-4 times, while SOL may grow by 8 times or more, and ETH will be somewhere in between. In terms of asset allocation, Pal's rule is roughly 90% invested in mainstream assets and 10% invested in others.

But at some stage, one or more 'new products' will be selected, and more bets will be placed on the 'new products'.

For example, SUI, he may allocate 25% to SUI in the near future and invest the remaining 65% in other assets.

Regarding Memecoin, he mentioned that considering it is still in the early stages, only a small amount of 'bet' is allocated, and he does not want to make it too big.

Why are SOL, SUI, and Doge being favored?

In July 2024, Pal announced on his YouTube channel that 90% of his personal cryptocurrency holdings are invested in SOL, because despite its price volatility, it has shown remarkable resilience.

Solana has a strong community, excellent user experience, outstanding technology, the ability to issue low-cost NFTs on the chain, and fast transaction speed. The popularity of Memecoin is also one of the breakthroughs for Solana in on-chain usage. The ecosystem is accelerating growth, just like ETH in the previous cycle. Therefore, he believes that SOL is a low-risk area and a good place to invest a larger amount of capital.

In addition to Solana, Pal also favors SUI and DOGE.

We chose SUI because it is innovative technically and has demonstrated superior performance in the market compared to other major crypto coins such as Solana and Ethereum.

Price performance is also important, until Sui's price performance is better than the overall performance of other crypto coins, Pal feels confident that Sui may be a 'new product'.

Choosing Doge is because of: Doge's strong cultural symbol and international recognition, i.e. extensive community support. This includes Elon Musk's support for Doge, which is also an undeniable factor. Elon Musk has the ability to promote the development of Doge through his social media influence and actual actions.

In addition, according to the trading charts and historical performance of DOGE, there will be a huge price fluctuation at some point every four years, and this cyclical performance is part of his investment decision-making.

In his eyes, DOGE is the Solana of Memecoins.

How to explore the potential of token coins?

Pal raised a point: scarcity lies not in the coins themselves, but in attention. The real game is capturing attention.

Therefore, the key to discovering potential assets lies in identifying those projects that can attract market attention and liquidity. This usually involves analyzing macroeconomic trends, such as policy changes and global events, which may affect asset attention. The theory of screening coins is equally applicable to Memecoin. For Memecoin, the most crucial thing is to understand the cultural significance and community acceptance of Memecoin. Invest in Memecoin that resonates with the wider audience and has strong community support.

Pay attention to the community situation, including social media, pay attention to price movements and market sentiment, look for assets that can attract investors' attention when prices are stable or rising, and this asset may have the potential to become the next big thing.

What is the difference between the popularity of Memecoins in this cycle and NFTs in the previous cycle?

While holding a certain amount of Memecoin, Pal believes that Memecoin is more about trading and investment, usually associated with specific communities or cultural phenomena, and its value partly comes from the sense of identity and participation among community members.

They may quickly appreciate due to the enthusiasm of the community, but there is also a risk of quickly losing value.

NFT represents a new asset class, which is not just an imitation of existing cryptocurrencies, but constitutes a new infrastructure. Its value lies in its uniqueness, scarcity, and cultural significance. They can serve as proof of ownership for tax-free art and collectibles, providing new opportunities for generational wealth accumulation.

There is not much time left for everyone to make money. Pal proposed that the market cycle is very urgent, and there may be 6-8 months left to make money. This means that investors need to adjust their capital risk ratio correctly before the market reaches its peak: assuming the market reaches 12 trillion US dollars, your major asset should earn the same amount of money as the market grows. If so, you are doing it right. If your 1% of assets rise by 100%, regardless of what they are, and other investment portfolios rise by x, if they all end up equal to the market, then you have mastered the risk-adjusted return.

Pal's suggestion is to find a balanced investment portfolio, where a higher-risk asset is paired with a lower-risk asset. For example, Pal believes that Solana is a relatively safe asset that ranks high, while Sui is a newly selected higher-risk asset. If the market develops rapidly, Sol will grow into a top three cryptocurrency, and SUI will enter the top ten.

Similarly, in the Memecoin space, Doge is a safer asset, while other Memecoins carry higher risks.

Observe different cycles and look for coins that maintain vitality, rather than Fomo.

"Doom sales, optimism makes money" In summary, Pal emphasizes three points regarding investments in the crypto market:

Establish a connection with the community and remember the importance of value and community in investment, rather than short-term profits.

DAI coin is not a game of scarcity, but attention.

Heavy positions are placed on a safer asset and held for a long time, and asset appreciation is obtained with the market cycle; Use a small amount of assets to bet on riskier coins, and choose "new products" through macro, community conditions, technological innovation, ecological development, and coin development.

Finally, Pal also mentioned, "Doom sales, optimism makes money"

In the financial field, successful investors in history (legendary figures) often make money by predicting and taking advantage of market downturns, buying when the market falls, and selling before the market recovers, thus realizing profits.

Because most of the time, everything will get better. Humanity will not self-destruct. Central banks and governments will take measures to prevent a sharp market decline. Technological progress is improving our lives and creating more wealth. Although the market will have periodic fluctuations, in the long run, the market tends to grow upward. This understanding tells investors: they should look for buying opportunities when the market falls, instead of panic selling.

(The above content is excerpted and reproduced with permission from our partner PANews, original link | Source: FC Talk)

Disclaimer: The article represents the personal views of the author, not the perspective and position of the blockchain, all content and opinions are for reference only, and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and trades, and the author and the blockchain will not bear any responsibility for the direct or indirect losses incurred by investors' transactions.

"〈Research on 20 years of macroeconomics Experienced Trader, which coins will buy in this cycle? 〉This article was first published in Block Times."