MICA Daily｜Research shows that the accuracy of the Blockchain prediction platform Polymarket is as high as 90%.

Data scientist Alex McCullough from New York created a dashboard on the Dune platform and published the latest research, tracking the accuracy of Polymarket over different time ranges, including one month, one week, one day, 12 hours, and 4 hours before event resolution. The results show that Polymarket's accuracy was 90.5% one month before event resolution, 89.2% one week before, 88.6% one day before, rising to 90.2% 12 hours before, and even reaching 94.2% 4 hours prior.

McCullough stated that the choice of these time frames is because they reveal interesting data trends. He measures accuracy based on market prices exceeding 50% and the final outcome being "yes" or "no", while excluding markets with extreme probabilities. Additionally, the accuracy of long-term markets is generally higher, but it will only be significantly reflected on the platform within 4 hours before the event resolves.

Although Polymarket performs well overall, McCullough points out that there are biases in the market, including herd behavior, insufficient liquidity, and conformity bias. These factors lead participants to often overestimate the likelihood of events occurring, resulting in inflated market prices, and ultimately the frequency of "yes" outcomes is lower than expected. This indicates that while Polymarket can predict trends in event occurrences to some extent, the exact price fluctuations remain quite large, making it impossible to use the final traded probabilities as precise decision-making criteria.

Disclaimer: The article only represents the personal views and opinions of the author and does not represent the views and positions of the blockchain platform. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and trades, and the author and the blockchain platform will not bear any responsibility for any direct or indirect losses incurred by investors' trades.