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MICA Daily|Market uncertainty increases, Bitcoin ETF continues to experience outflows

Bitcoin has seen continuous outflows, with prices declining, coupled with the uncertainties of Trump's tariff policy, resulting in a sluggish market atmosphere; in contrast, Ether has performed better, with expectations that the SEC may approve applications related to Ether ETFs, but the market remains filled with uncertainties. Risks such as US-China trade tensions and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have intensified, leading investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach, which affects the performance of the Crypto Assets market, necessitating attention to market trends.
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Trump's son predicts "Bitcoin will soar to $170,000 next year," naming Michael Saylor as the mentor.

Donald Trump's two sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, publicly expressed bullish sentiment on Bitcoin, predicting that Bitcoin will surpass $170,000 by the end of 2026. They also revealed that the key driving force behind the Trump family's entry into the crypto world is Bitcoin's major bull, Michael Saylor, the founder of Strategy.
Donald Trump Jr. predicts that Bitcoin will reach between $150,000 and $175,000 by the end of 2026; Eric Trump jokingly stated that Bitcoin "will soar all the way to the moon," then shifted his tone to point out that the supply cap of Bitcoin is amplifying the market's perception of scarcity:
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> Every day, billions of dollars continue to flow into the Bitcoin market, 0.1 Bitcoin in the future
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【MICA RESEARCH】The crisis of confidence in USD assets pushes Bitcoin to break historical highs.

Bitcoin successfully broke through its historical high last week, with the price reaching 110,000 USD. This is not just a price breakthrough; the upward trend is quite healthy. Investors have not been buying Bitcoin through leverage but are mainly benefiting from institutional funds and ETF buying that are driving up the price of Bitcoin. Although there was a slight correction to 107,000 USD on Friday due to the threat from Trump regarding a 50% tariff on the EU and a 25% tariff on Apple, the overall market sentiment and funding situation remain very healthy.
The strong rally of Bitcoin last week was primarily driven by global investors' decreasing interest in dollar assets, concerned that the U.S. "Too Big to Fail" tax cuts would significantly increase the U.S. fiscal deficit, accelerating the risk of bankruptcy in the U.S. Consequently, U.S. bond prices saw a staggering drop, with the yield on 30-year bonds breaking 5.1%, indicating that investors are no longer willing to foot the bill for America's fiscal irresponsibility, and Bitcoin has become
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MICA Daily|Glassnode: Spot buying pressure pushes Bitcoin, pump momentum is expected to continue

According to Glassnode's latest report, Bitcoin surged to $106,000 earlier, primarily driven by strong demand in the spot market, with a daily net buying pressure on Coinbase reaching as high as $45 million. Unlike previous surges dominated by leveraged speculation, this time it is mainly driven by the natural accumulation in the spot market. The report points out that Bitcoin has seen a significant turnover in the range of $93,000 to $95,000, which has now become a key support level, overlapping with the cost basis of investors who entered the market over the past 155 days.
The derivatives market shows signs of lagging, with the open interest of perpetual contracts dropping by 10%, from 370,000 Bitcoins to 336,000, which may indicate that shorts are being liquidated. However, the funding rate remains neutral, suggesting that leveraged long positions have not yet overheated, which could provide momentum for further pumps, with Bitcoin spot ETF inflows.
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Does "Little Fox" issue coin? MetaMask co-founder admits: still considering

As discussions about MetaMask considering the launch of a native Token surface, co-founder Dan Finlay reveals the possibilities but emphasizes that announcements will be made through official channels. Amid the regulatory risks being in a gray area, he calls on the industry to break boundaries through issuing coins. MetaMask is actively enhancing user experience to address challenges from new competitors. Dan Finlay warns that regulatory laws still pose risks.
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MICA Daily|CryptoQuant Report: The Discount on Ether May Not Be a Buying Opportunity

According to the CryptoQuant report, the price of Ether has recently fallen to its lowest point since 2019, but has since rebounded. However, compared to Bitcoin, Ether is still in a significantly discounted state, with its ETH/BTC market price MVRV ratio having entered the "severely undervalued" range, indicating that the price of Ether has fallen too much compared to Bitcoin, which has often been a signal for price rebounds in the past. However, CryptoQuant analysts believe that the current market environment is different from before, making this undervaluation indicator no longer carry the same meaning.
The reasons why Ether is undervalued include multiple fundamental factors. First, the Dencun upgrade in March 2024 led to a decrease in transaction fees and a reduction in the amount of Ether being burned, resulting in inflationary pressure re-emerging and breaking the previous deflation narrative. Second, on-chain activity has been weak since 2021, with a decline in the number of transactions and active addresses.
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Eric Trump, the second son of Trump, warned: If banks do not adopt Blockchain, they could face extinction within 10 years.

Donald Trump's second son, Eric Trump, Executive Vice President of the Trump Organization, stated that if banks do not embrace blockchain technology, they may face the fate of "extinction within 10 years."
Eric Trump stated during an interview with CNBC on Wednesday: "The modern financial system has long been fragmented, inefficient, and costly." He added:
> Anything that operates on the Blockchain can perform better than existing financial institutions. Take the international banking communication and payment system SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) as an example; it is simply a disaster.
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The Trump family is no stranger to cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. Eric Trump and his brother Donald Trump Jr.
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10-fold increase in 3 years! Standard Chartered's forecast: the market size of stablecoins in 2028 looks at $2 trillion

Standard Chartered's latest report predicts that the overall stablecoin market will skyrocket to $2 trillion by the end of 2028, almost 10 times the current $230 billion, and the catalyst for this wave of growth is the GENIUS Act, which is expected to be legislated in the United States this summer.
The bill, known as the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, was voted by the Senate Banking Committee last month and will be enacted as soon as this summer.
Geoffrey, Head of Global Digital Asset Research, Standard Chartered
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MICA Daily|Trump reverses stance on chip tariff exemption policy again, raising concerns about the supply of Mining Rig chips.

On Saturday, U.S. Customs added an exemption clause in response to President Trump's announcement of a temporary exemption from 'reciprocal tariffs' for electronic products such as smartphones, laptops, and memory chips, slightly easing consumer concerns about rising prices of technology goods imported from China. However, on Sunday, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Ratnik reiterated that these products will be included in another tariff action targeting semiconductors within 1 to 2 months, leaving future policies full of uncertainty.
The latest guidelines from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection also exclude 20 types of products, including semiconductor manufacturing equipment, tablets, Apple watches, and computers, from tariff implementation for the time being. However, punitive tariffs against China remain in place, including an additional 20% tariff for its role in the fentanyl trade. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce called this move a minor correction of the U.S. unilateralism error and a subtle hint that the U.S. tariff policy is beginning to yield to China.
It is worth noting that,
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MICA Daily|Investors are concerned about the ongoing deleveraging of the US stock market, and Bitcoin suddenly fell to 78,000 USD.

In the past few hours, the price of Bitcoin suddenly fell, plummeting from nearly 83,000 dollars to below 79,000 dollars. According to CoinGlass data, about 600 million dollars in leveraged positions were liquidated, and the market liquidation level surged significantly. This drop occurred after Bitcoin's stable performance over the past few days, outperforming major indices. However, the price drop that occurred early this morning mainly reflects the concerns of specific large investors about the future market.
Currently, the sentiment in the US tech market is tense, as President Trump announced comprehensive reciprocal tariffs globally. The market anticipates that the EU may impose retaliatory tariffs, and investors are worried about a severe situation when trading opens on Monday. Additionally, many hedge funds received warnings about margin calls and financing maintenance rates over the weekend. Some analysts believe that the market will experience more intense deleveraging, assuming that Trump's policies do not change or ease in the future, then the market's downward trend.
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MICA Daily|Trump will announce "reciprocal tariffs" on Wednesday, the market holds its breath.

U.S. President Trump claimed that on Wednesday (April 2), he will promote "Liberation Day" and announce a new wave of reciprocal tariff policies aimed at reducing reliance on foreign goods and strengthening the domestic economy. As this day approaches, we have observed more dumping activities in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin prices slowly sliding back to the $82,000 range, and overall volume also shrinking, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment among investors.
Although economists generally believe that this will lead to rising prices and declining household incomes, Trump insists on implementing it and encourages businesses to invest to avoid tariffs. He proposed a reciprocal tariff policy, taxing countries such as the EU, South Korea, Brazil, and India, meaning that the U.S. will impose the same proportion of tariffs as other countries impose on the U.S. Last week, Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars, citing that the U.S. has been at a disadvantage in trade for a long time.
However, regarding inflation, Trump is concerned.
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MICA Daily|Research shows that the accuracy of the Blockchain prediction platform Polymarket is as high as 90%.

New York data scientist Alex McCullough analyzed the accuracy rates of Polymarket over different time ranges on the Dune platform, finding that accuracy improved over time, reaching a peak of 94.2%. However, market biases and price fluctuations mean that the final results of trades cannot serve as precise decision-making bases. McCullough emphasizes the need for caution when observing long-term market accuracy and points out that participants often overestimate the likelihood of events occurring.
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