BlockBeats News, 10th September, Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, said that the long-term relationship between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields is not the only recession warning sent by the bond market last Friday. The sharp decline in the 2-year Treasury yield has also pushed the spread between short-term notes and the federal funds interest rate to the most negative level in at least 50 years. Colas pointed out that during this period, the spread between these two short-term interest rates has only fallen below -1% three times, and each time a recession begins within a year. However, Colas does not believe that this necessarily leads to an economic recession. He said that an economic recession requires a catalyst to start, and so far, nothing has happened in the United States that could trigger such a severe economic slowdown. On the contrary, this inversion indicates that bond traders are increasingly concerned that the Federal Reserve has not promptly lowered borrowing costs in the face of a slowing labor market. Colas said in a report on Monday, "The US bond market is saying that the Federal Reserve is far behind the situation in terms of interest rate cuts." (Jin10)
Ver original
O conteúdo serve apenas de referência e não constitui uma solicitação ou oferta. Não é prestado qualquer aconselhamento em matéria de investimento, fiscal ou jurídica. Consulte a Declaração de exoneração de responsabilidade para obter mais informações sobre os riscos.
Analista: O mercado de títulos dos EUA sugere que o Fed está muito atrás da curva em termos de corte de juros
BlockBeats News, 10th September, Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, said that the long-term relationship between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields is not the only recession warning sent by the bond market last Friday. The sharp decline in the 2-year Treasury yield has also pushed the spread between short-term notes and the federal funds interest rate to the most negative level in at least 50 years. Colas pointed out that during this period, the spread between these two short-term interest rates has only fallen below -1% three times, and each time a recession begins within a year. However, Colas does not believe that this necessarily leads to an economic recession. He said that an economic recession requires a catalyst to start, and so far, nothing has happened in the United States that could trigger such a severe economic slowdown. On the contrary, this inversion indicates that bond traders are increasingly concerned that the Federal Reserve has not promptly lowered borrowing costs in the face of a slowing labor market. Colas said in a report on Monday, "The US bond market is saying that the Federal Reserve is far behind the situation in terms of interest rate cuts." (Jin10)