Alts will迎来最后一轮big pump, but only a few people can benefit from it.

The altcoin season indicator remains low, with the market still dominated by Bitcoin, and volume becoming a new key factor.

Written by: CIARAN LYONS

Compiled by: Lawrence, Mars Finance

Real Vision's Jamie Coutts is watching whether the altcoin market may recover in June, but he suggests that traders should view network activity as the "North Star" of cryptocurrency investing.

An analyst stated that alts may only have one last surge in this cycle, but only those altcoins with true utility and strong network activity can achieve price increases.

"I believe alts will see a significant rise again. The question is, is this a rally that lasts six to twelve months?" Real Vision's chief cryptocurrency analyst Jamie Coutts told Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal during an X live stream on April 3.

Online activity will become the "Polaris" of cryptocurrency trading.

"At this stage, I'm not quite sure, but I do believe that quality altcoin activities will return, and these activities will drive prices up... We will definitely see some quality alts making a comeback," Coutts stated.

Cointelegraph reported in January that there are currently over 36 million alts in existence. However, according to CoinGecko data, Ethereum still occupies the majority share of the total locked value (TVL) at 55.56%, followed by Solana (6.89%), Bitcoin (5.77%), BNB Smart Chain (5.68%), and Tron (5.54%).

Kutz stated that traders should focus on the "tendencies" of network activity and use it as a "North Star" for how to trade cryptocurrencies, adding that he expects the alts market to rebound in the next two months.

"I expect that by June, alts will really start to warm up. The premise is that by then Bitcoin will have returned to its all-time high."

On March 28, Coutts told Cointelegraph that regardless of whether U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and potential economic recession concerns become clearer, Bitcoin could potentially reach a new all-time high before the end of the second quarter.

In the past 30 days, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has decreased by about 8%.

Against the backdrop of a generally sluggish cryptocurrency market, blockchain network activity has recently seen a significant decline. On February 21, Cointelegraph reported that the number of active addresses on Solana dropped to an average of 9.5 million per week in February, down nearly 40% from the 15.6 million active addresses in November 2024.

alts indicators flash red light

At the same time, several key indicators used in the cryptocurrency industry to determine that the altcoin season is approaching suggest that it is still out of reach.

According to CoinMarketCap data, Capriole Investments' alts speculation index has dropped to 12%, down 53% since December 25, during which Ethereum has decreased by 49% from $3,490.

The CoinMarketCap altcoin season index measures the performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies against Bitcoin over the past 90 days, with a score of 14 out of 100, indicating a Bitcoin-dominated market, which is referred to as "Bitcoin season."

At the time of this publication, the altcoin season index chart is at 14.

However, despite Bitcoin's dominance (often seen as a retracement level signaling the arrival of altcoin season) reaching 62.84%, some analysts believe that this is no longer a signal for the arrival of altcoin season.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Yu recently stated that Bitcoin's dominance "no longer determines the season of altcoins; volume does."