Sui faces the risk of plunging – Analyst warns of altcoin shock

Analyst Dan Gambardello recently issued a warning about the potential risks that the altcoin market, including SUI, is facing. While maintaining an optimistic view on the long-term growth trend of the cryptocurrency sector, he also emphasized that investors need to be cautious of short-term instability signals.

In the latest analysis, Gambardello focused on assessing the impact of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), while closely monitoring the accumulation patterns from major investment institutions. Additionally, the current technical indicators also show that the altcoin market is facing both challenges and opportunities – a sensitive period that investors need to carefully consider their strategies.

Analyst adds SUI price to risk model in the context of altcoin struggling

Recently, Dan Gambardello officially incorporated SUI into his risk assessment model within his cryptocurrency information monitoring system, reflecting the growing feedback from the investor community. This move comes amid his expressed concerns about the short term outlook for the altcoin market in general.

Although no detailed technical analysis of SUI has been published in the latest comments, the integration of this token into the risk monitoring framework indicates that Gambardello sees it being similarly affected by macro factors – particularly the Fed's monetary policy and institutional capital flows.

According to him, like many other altcoins, the price of SUI is currently influenced by systemic market forces. This requires close monitoring, especially in the context of the market undergoing a phase of instability and lack of clear direction.

Gambardello's risk-based model approach shows that he assesses SUI no longer as a token on the sidelines – but as a part of the broader picture of the altcoin market, where caution is becoming a key factor for investment strategy.

The Fed's balance sheet contraction puts downward pressure on altcoin

In the latest analysis, Dan Gambardello focuses on the impact of the Fed's balance sheet, which has been continuously shrinking since its peak in 2022. He argues that this prolonged tightening trend is creating a challenging environment for risk assets – particularly altcoins.

Gambardello believes that the market is currently operating under a prolonged "bear market" condition, driven by the Fed's tightening liquidity policy since the beginning of 2022. According to him, the global liquidity decline has significantly weakened the recovery strength of many digital assets, while putting altcoins in a more vulnerable position compared to stable assets like Bitcoin.

Citing historical data, Gambardello emphasized the close correlation between the Fed's monetary policy and the performance of the crypto market. He pointed to the period 2012–2013, when (QE) quantitative easing policy contributed to Bitcoin's strong price rally. Notably, he said that Bitcoin in that period had many similarities with today's altcoins, both in terms of size and sensitivity to capital flows.

In addition, the analyst also recalled the period from September to October 2019, when the Fed expanded its balance sheet again – this move coincided with a significant recovery of many altcoins after a deep decline cycle. In contrast, the current environment reflects the opposite trend: the continued contraction of the balance sheet is putting significant pressure on highly volatile digital assets.

Despite clearly recognizing the immediate risks, Gambardello maintains a positive outlook on long term prospects. He believes that the current correction phase is laying the groundwork for the next growth cycle, emphasizing that many years in a "bear market" have created ideal conditions for the accumulation process. However, he warns that the market will need more time and patience, especially as investors are waiting for clear signals from the Fed regarding the potential shift to a loosening policy.

In conclusion, Gambardello believes that altcoin may continue to face downward pressure in the near future if the Fed maintains a tight stance, but he sees this as an inevitable phase in the long term development cycle of the digital asset market.

Ethereum's technical indicators show great potential for price increase

In a recent technical analysis, Dan Gambardello noted that Ethereum is entering the oversold area on the monthly timeframe — a signal that could indicate a strong bullish reversal as macro market conditions become more favorable.

Analysts pay special attention to the Stochastic RSI indicator of Ethereum, currently touching the oversold threshold on the monthly chart — a similar situation occurred in September 2023. At that time, ETH was trading around $1,600 before breaking out, recording an increase of over 140–150% in the following months.

!()https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-b191fa4961025e76ef4d5d4f2f26b628[altcoin]Ethereum Price Analysis | Source: Dan GambardelloCurrently trading around $2,600, Ethereum could surpass the $6,000 mark if it replicates a similar growth trend as seen in late 2023. However, according to Dan Gambardello, the current technical conditions – especially the stronger oversold signal – suggest that the potential for price increase this time may exceed that threshold.

On the monthly timeframe, the Ethereum chart shows that this cryptocurrency is being compressed between two important technical thresholds: the 20-month moving average (MA20) and the 50-month moving average (MA50). In the past, such a price structure has often been a precursor to significant volatility, especially when accompanied by the RSI indicator which is currently showing a state of deep oversold even more than during the breakout in September 2023.

Gambardello believes that these technical signals are being reinforced by strong accumulation moves from institutions. Specifically, BlackRock – the world's largest asset management company – has increased its holdings of Ethereum from about 1 million ETH in December 2024 to over 1.4 million ETH currently. The addition of 400,000 ETH in the context of a sideways market indicates that long term confidence is gradually forming at the institutional level.

Not only large organizations, but also Ethereum "whales" are actively buying in. In just the past few days, over 11 million dollars worth of ETH has been added to the portfolios of large addresses, highlighting the increasing interest in the second largest altcoin in this market.

Gambardello concluded that the combination of strong technical signals and increased accumulation activity from both institutions and individuals is creating a positive outlook for Ethereum – at least in the medium and long term.

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