Original title: Messari predicts: The reasonable valuation of PUMP may be 7 billion USD, is buying in the public sale a guaranteed profit?
According to various media reports citing knowledgeable sources, pump.fun is preparing to sell 25% of its PUMP tokens at a valuation of $4 billion to raise $1 billion.
Is this price attractive?
Sunny Shi from Messari has built a valuation model for PUMP, showing that its FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) could reach $7 billion. If the prediction is correct, buying PUMP tokens would be profitable. However, there is an important premise. Below is their valuation process (from Sunny Shi's perspective, "we" refers to Messari):
No matter how you view memecoins, this sector continues to "print money."
Despite the decline in trading volume on the pump.fun token platform compared to the beginning of the year, it is still well above the levels seen for most of 2024.
The trading volume of Pump.fun is higher than most of the time in 24 years, data: Messari
People may have also underestimated the success of PumpSwap. This DEX launched about three months ago but has already significantly eaten into Raydium's market share on Solana.
Comparison of market shares between PumpSwap and Raydium, data: Messari
Our valuation method uses a top-down model, assuming the overall trading volume of the crypto market, Solana's market share, the share of launch platforms, and PumpSwap's market share. These assumptions and models are only available to enterprise clients, but I will share the main conclusions.
In our base case scenario, we believe that Memecoins will occupy a niche in the broader crypto economy, as they are more suitable for speculative purposes than NFTs.
Of course, as the Solana ecosystem matures, it will undoubtedly diversify towards new asset pairs, but this point is also very likely to hold true.
We believe that even though pump.fun's share within the Solana ecosystem has slightly declined, PumpSwap continues to grow, and the pump project is still expected to generate approximately $675 million in revenue over the next two years.
Calculating with a 10x valuation multiple, the corresponding FDV is approximately 7 billion dollars.
However, the key premise is: if the project party chooses an opaque token/equity structure that allocates most of the income to insiders rather than to token holders, then we believe the current market has become quite cautious and will not overlook such a poor method of value accumulation.
In our full report, we provide a valuation table to assess the potential value of PUMP based on the percentage of income that token holders can receive.
Regardless of how the market ultimately judges, this is a great opportunity to participate in the most profitable crypto application in history. It now depends on whether the project team provides enough value (buy-in) to token holders to make it a worthy investment.
Editor's Note:
In the pre-market perpetual trading market of Aevo, the current price of PUMP is 6 dollars, corresponding to a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of 6 billion.
The pre-market price of PUMP on Aevo
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The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
Messari's latest research report: Why is PUMP valued at $7 billion?
Written by: Sunny Shi, Messari Crypto
Compiled by: Alex Liu, Foresight News
Original title: Messari predicts: The reasonable valuation of PUMP may be 7 billion USD, is buying in the public sale a guaranteed profit?
According to various media reports citing knowledgeable sources, pump.fun is preparing to sell 25% of its PUMP tokens at a valuation of $4 billion to raise $1 billion.
Is this price attractive?
Sunny Shi from Messari has built a valuation model for PUMP, showing that its FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) could reach $7 billion. If the prediction is correct, buying PUMP tokens would be profitable. However, there is an important premise. Below is their valuation process (from Sunny Shi's perspective, "we" refers to Messari):
No matter how you view memecoins, this sector continues to "print money."
Despite the decline in trading volume on the pump.fun token platform compared to the beginning of the year, it is still well above the levels seen for most of 2024.
People may have also underestimated the success of PumpSwap. This DEX launched about three months ago but has already significantly eaten into Raydium's market share on Solana.
Comparison of market shares between PumpSwap and Raydium, data: Messari
Our valuation method uses a top-down model, assuming the overall trading volume of the crypto market, Solana's market share, the share of launch platforms, and PumpSwap's market share. These assumptions and models are only available to enterprise clients, but I will share the main conclusions.
In our base case scenario, we believe that Memecoins will occupy a niche in the broader crypto economy, as they are more suitable for speculative purposes than NFTs.
Of course, as the Solana ecosystem matures, it will undoubtedly diversify towards new asset pairs, but this point is also very likely to hold true.
We believe that even though pump.fun's share within the Solana ecosystem has slightly declined, PumpSwap continues to grow, and the pump project is still expected to generate approximately $675 million in revenue over the next two years.
Calculating with a 10x valuation multiple, the corresponding FDV is approximately 7 billion dollars.
However, the key premise is: if the project party chooses an opaque token/equity structure that allocates most of the income to insiders rather than to token holders, then we believe the current market has become quite cautious and will not overlook such a poor method of value accumulation.
In our full report, we provide a valuation table to assess the potential value of PUMP based on the percentage of income that token holders can receive.
Regardless of how the market ultimately judges, this is a great opportunity to participate in the most profitable crypto application in history. It now depends on whether the project team provides enough value (buy-in) to token holders to make it a worthy investment.
Editor's Note:
In the pre-market perpetual trading market of Aevo, the current price of PUMP is 6 dollars, corresponding to a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of 6 billion.
The pre-market price of PUMP on Aevo