The US "small non-farm" ADP report is out! In June, positions decreased by 33,000, and Bitcoin stands at $108,000.

The ADP employment report, known as the "small non-farmer", came out on the evening of July 2, showing that the US private sector saw a net loss of 33,000 jobs in June, the largest decline since March 2023, well below the market's original expectation of an increase of 95,000, and the May figure was also revised down to an increase of 29,000. (Synopsis: US Treasury Secretary Bencent: The Fed will definitely cut interest rates in September!) Trump tariffs have not made inflation worse) (Background addition: Powell did not rule out a rate cut in July, saying that if the tariffs have not been cut, tariffs are expected to have an impact on inflation) The US labor market cooled sharply in June! The ADP employment report, known as the "small non-farmer", came out on the evening of July 2, showing that the US private sector saw a net loss of 33,000 jobs in June, the largest decline since March 2023, well below the market's original expectation of an increase of 95,000, and the May figure was also revised down to an increase of 29,000. Rare negative growth in the labor market According to the report, the service sector was the main drag, with a net loss of 66,000 jobs. Manufacturing and leisure hotels increased by 15,000 and 32,000 respectively. In terms of business size, small businesses lost 47,000 people, showing the heaviest cost and financial pressures. In this regard, ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson emphasized: "Although layoffs are still not widespread, last month's job loss reflects companies' hesitation in hiring and not rushing to fill vacancies in departing employees." Forexlive analyst Adam Button said that this is the weakest reading since March 2023, making investors pay more attention to the upcoming non-farm payrolls report. As for the interest rate cuts discussed in the market, after the release of the ADP data, the futures market showed that traders still expect 2 rate cuts this year. At the same time, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market now expects a 75.7% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July, down from before the release of the ADP report; The market sees a 1-yard rate cut in September at 70.5%. U.S. stocks mixed, bitcoin rushed to 108,000 ADP After the report was released, U.S. stocks were mixed, and the four major indexes were: Dow Jones Industrial Average: down 0.13%, or 58.7 points, intraday at 44,433.75 S&P 500: up 0.13%, or 8.57, intraday at 6,206.58 Nasdaq: up 0.59%, or 117.88 points, intraday at 20,320.77 Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: up 1.12%, Or 60.77 points, intraday at 5,567.83 points On the cryptocurrency side, bitcoin has slowly risen, and has rushed to $108,000 at writing, up 2% in the past 24 hours. Source: OKX Spot Next observation point: Non-farm payrolls report 7/3 out It is worth noting that due to the US Independence Day holiday (July 4), the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for June will be released earlier to 20:30 pm Taiwan time on July 3, 2025. According to market forecasts, nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 129,000 in June, down from 139,000 in May; The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. If the subsequent data is consistent with the ADP report, the Fed may have more room to cut interest rates; Conversely, the policy path is still likely to fluctuate. Related reports Powell's "position turn" on the first day of congressional hearings: early interest rate cuts are not ruled out, but economic data in June and July are more important Behind Trump's "obsession" with interest rate cuts: What is he worried about? Win Trump's favor for Bauer? Fed Governor Waller released pigeons: Fed cut interest rates as early as July, and the impact of tariff shocks was short-lived (US "small non-farmer" ADP report released! In June, the number of jobs fell by 33,000, and the bitcoin station was 108,000 US dollars" This article was first published in BlockTempo's "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media".