Hedera Price Prediction: HBAR erases all weekly profits, could a big dump of over 40% in history repeat?

The price momentum of Hedera (HBAR) may weaken, currently reporting at 0.2369 USD during the Asian session today (25). Despite a monthly increase of 58.77%, HBAR has erased all weekly profits. The formation of bearish crosses and a negative bull-bear power index indicates a change in momentum, and the historical possibility of HBAR experiencing a big dump of over 40% may repeat.

Although the short-term pullback of HBAR looks like a standard cooling period, a careful observation of past price behavior, short-term chart signals, and key support areas indicates that there may be deeper pain.

Historical pullbacks suggest familiar profit-taking zones for HBAR

Why should we pay attention to the pullback now? Because HBAR has entered a phase of profit-taking in history. In March 2025, when HBAR rebounded to $0.26, it had pulled back approximately 53.74% from its historical high. At that time, the price of HBAR experienced a big dump of 47%, falling to $0.14 in just one month.

Fast forward to July 22, the retracement reached 52%, and the trading price of HBAR was close to $0.27. After that, the retracement has already begun; this indicates that traders may have taken profits again in the 50% to 60% retracement range.

Even if the situation is like March 1, the magnitude is smaller (thanks to the narrative of the altcoin bull season), the price of HBAR has fallen 40% from $0.27, ultimately reaching around $0.16. Interestingly, this aligns with the key support level. A more detailed explanation will be provided in the later analysis.

In short, historical retracement areas are places where traders typically hit the brakes. And this pattern seems to be repeating.

ATH retracement measures the extent to which the token price has fallen from its historical peak. It helps identify common areas where traders lock in profits.

(Source: Glassnode)

HBAR Price Analysis: Death Cross Appears on 4-Hour Chart, May Accelerate Fall

Zooming in on the 4-hour chart, another bearish signal is emerging. The 20-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) or the red line is approaching the 50-period EMA (orange line), which is a typical bearish cross known as the "death cross." Although it has not yet triggered, the trend is nearly complete.

We use the 4-hour chart here because it often captures trend changes earlier than the daily chart. This early signal indicates that momentum is shifting in favor of the bears.

Supporting this view is the Bull-Bear Power Index, which has just turned negative. Sellers are gaining the upper hand; this suggests that if bulls fail to intervene, the fall may accelerate. If there is a cross confirmation and bears dominate, momentum-driven sell-offs are expected to push prices lower, especially in a scenario where history has already laid the groundwork.

The bull-bear power measures the strength comparison between buyers and sellers. When this indicator turns negative (red), it indicates that the bears have taken control.

(Source: Trading View)