Will HBAR continue to fall by 40%? That is entirely possible.

Despite having increased by up to 58.77% last month, Hedera (HBAR) has wiped out all weekly gains and fallen by more than 8% in just 24 hours.

This may just be a normal adjustment, but short-term technical signals and important support levels indicate that the risk of a deeper fall still exists.

Data shows the familiar take profit zone

The reason to pay attention to the deep falls is that HBAR has just reached the area where investors usually tend to take profits.

In March 2025, when the price reached $0.26 – 53.74% below the ATH, HBAR subsequently triggered a 47% fall to $0.14 in just one month.

HBAR has fallen sharply and the historical correction | Source: GlassnodeAs of July 22, the price of HBAR has returned to $0.27, about 52% away from ATH. Since then, the correction phase has begun, indicating that investors may continue to sell in the price range of 50–60% compared to the peak.

If a similar scenario repeats but is milder ( due to positive sentiment from the altcoin season ), the price could fall by about 40% from the $0.27 mark, pulling the price back to $0.16, which is also an important support area.

The 4-hour chart shows a bearish crossover signal as the red EMA 20 ( is about to cross below the orange EMA 50 ), a pattern commonly referred to as a "death cross." This is a sign that the downtrend may strengthen.

HBAR Price and EMA Crossover: TradingViewAt the same time, the Bull Bear Power indicator has just turned negative, indicating that the bears are gaining the upper hand. If the death cross pattern completes and selling pressure increases, the price of HBAR could fall deeper, consistent with what has happened in the past.

Bull Bear Power indicator of HBAR: TradingViewThe Bull Bear Power indicator measures the strength of the bulls compared to the bears. When the indicator turns to negative (red), it means that the bears have taken control of the market.

Important support lies around $0.21

HBAR is currently trading around $0.23, coinciding with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, drawn from the recent low at $0.12 to the high of $0.29.

HBAR price analysis | Source: TradingViewIf it falls below $0.23, the next support level is at $0.212 (Fib level 0.5). Additionally, $0.19 and $0.16 will be important levels to watch.

However, if HBAR can regain the support level of $0.25, which has now turned into a resistance level, and there is no death cross, the bearish signal will be invalidated.

Vincent