$7.5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today! Strategy spent $2.1 billion to buy the dip in BTC, becoming a key support.

On August 1, the cryptocurrency options exchange Deribit is set to experience a significant delivery day, with BTC and ETH options worth over $7.5 billion about to expire. The maximum pain point for Bitcoin is $117,000 (current price $116,003), and for Ethereum, it is $3,550 (current price above this). The put-call ratio (PCR) indicates that the market remains optimistic, but institutional market stabilization and price magnetic effects hide potential variables. Strategy has invested $2.1 billion to buy the dip in BTC as a key support, and analysts warn of volatility risks over the weekend after the delivery.

7.5 billion Options Peak Approaches: BTC and ETH Face Monthly Delivery Challenge

The cryptocurrency market is facing significant fluctuation challenges! On August 1, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options worth over $7.5 billion will expire on the Deribit exchange. Like every monthly options expiration event, this week's delivery may also significantly impact the price direction through traders' hedging or closing positions, potentially "pinning" the coin price near key strike prices.

Key Data Insights: Major Pain Points, Open Interest, and Market Sentiment

(Source: Deribit)

• Bitcoin Options (Total Value of $5.6 Billion):
  • Max Pain: $117,000 (significantly higher than the current price $116,003)
  • Open Interest (OI): 46,618 contracts (corresponding to 48,568.75 BTC)
  • Put-Call Ratio (PCR): 0.79 (bullish options dominate, market sentiment is bullish)
• Ethereum Options (total value of $1.39 billion):
  • Max Pain: $3,550 (current price is above this level)
  • Open Interest (OI): 375,709 contracts (ETH contract positions surpass BTC)
  • Put-Call Ratio (PCR): 0.91 (bullish options still dominate, cautiously optimistic)

** (Source: Deribit)

**The deep signal of ETH's open interest surpassing BTC's The total amount of open contracts for Ethereum Options has surpassed Bitcoin, and this phenomenon conveys multiple messages: **

1. More funds are betting on the short-term fluctuation of ETH.
2. Under the narrative of the Ethereum ecosystem (such as re-staking and L2 explosion), ETH's dominance in the derivatives market is strengthening.
3. Traders have higher expectations for the Fluctuation of Ethereum's recent price compared to Bitcoin.

Price Magnet Effect: The "Invisible Hand" of Delivery Day

As the expiration approaches, prices are often "magnetically attracted" to the maximum pain point level. The mechanism is as follows:

• Market Makers and Institutions (Smart Money) tend to sell options to retail investors, aiming for the options to expire worthless.
• By operating to stabilize the price near the maximum pain point, it can minimize the payout expenditure for bullish/bearish options.
• This may lead to a mild correction in ETH, while BTC may slightly rebound. Deribit analysts point out: "BTC holdings are diversified, but the price is firmly holding above the maximum pain point. ETH is also pinned above $3,500. Will the expiration date be a magnet or a stepping stone?" It should be noted that this phenomenon is not always artificially manipulated; hedging behavior itself may naturally cause the price to approach the maximum pain point. However, under insufficient liquidity or severely imbalanced holdings, the traces of price guidance will be more pronounced.

Long and Short Game: Institutional Support VS Macroeconomic Pressure

Options analysis platform Greeks.live indicates that the current market sentiment is polarized:

• Key Level: $116,000 is a significant support level for BTC, with resistance above at $118,000.
• Divergence Point: Is the recent fall a "buy the dip opportunity" or the "beginning of a deep correction"? Opinions vary. This pullback is mainly attributed to the Federal Reserve's (FOMC) decision to keep interest rates unchanged.

Strategy 2.1 billion USD buy the dip becomes a key Market Stabilization force Despite the market pressure, Michael Saylor's Strategy has provided a key buffer for the Bitcoin market:

• After the company completed a $2.52 billion IPO, it immediately invested $2.1 billion to purchase 21,021 BTC at an average price of $117,256.
• This move created significant institutional buying pressure. Analysts' interpretations present a dichotomy:

1. Supply Shock Theory: Massive purchases or catalysts drive BTC price upwards.
2. Weak Support Theory: This buying behavior may form temporary support around $114,000. Greeks. live emphasized: "Traders pointed out that this is likely the main buy order support at the $114,000 level, explaining why the open interest remained flat during the rebound. The community is concerned that if such institutional fund flows are lost, the price could easily fall to $115,000 or lower, highlighting the current dependence of the market on corporate treasury fund flows." The influence of cryptocurrency institutional holdings is prominent.

Conclusion: The total value of $7.5 billion in BTC and ETH options is set to expire, compounded by the aftershocks of Federal Reserve policy and institutional capital support factors, making tonight's market destined for fluctuations. The biggest pain point ($117,000/$3,550) will become the battleground for both bulls and bears, with the price magnetic effect potentially dominating short-term trends. MicroStrategy's $2.1 billion BTC purchase provides some support but also exposes the market's deep reliance on institutional capital flow. Traders must be vigilant about the risk of volatility spikes around the delivery time at 8:00 UTC (16:00 Beijing time). After the delivery is completed, the market may see a brief stabilization, and investors need to quickly adapt to the new balance. In the highly complex game of the cryptocurrency derivatives market, risk management remains the core rule for weathering the storm. The direction of the weekend market will be revealed tonight.