XRP technical fractals suggest a big dump of 45%, SEC victory market faces obstacles.

After achieving a significant victory in the lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), XRP once ignited market optimism, with volume soaring over 200%, raising hopes for the approval of a Spot ETF. However, the latest technical charts are releasing unsettling signals—a bearish fractal strikingly similar to the peaks of 2017-2018, suggesting a pullback risk of up to 45%.

The frenzy cools down after SEC victory

(Source: Trading View)

Volume Surge: Daily trading volume skyrocketed by 208% to $12.4 billion after the settlement, with analysts estimating a 95% probability of ETF approval by October 2025.

Short-term pullback: On August 12, XRP fell from an intraday high of $3.32 to $3.13, a 24-hour fall of 4%.

Selling pressure emerged: During the 19:00 period, 73.87 million coins were sold, indicating that large holders are locking in profits.

Key price level:

Support: $3.12

Resistance: $3.27–$3.32

Bearish Fractal: Potential 45% fall

Technical analysts point out that XRP's two-week chart shows a price creating higher highs, but the RSI is creating lower highs, a divergence phenomenon that is very similar to the peak period of 2017-2018.

Potential target: If the fractal is established, XRP may fall to $1.64 (50-week EMA), which is about a 45% drop from the current price.

Intermediate support: the range of 1.90–2.00 USD may see short-term buying.

This pullback may not end the long-term bullish trend, but it could wash out excessive leveraged positions and reshape market sentiment.

Bullish Counterarguments

Bulls believe that XRP has broken through the symmetrical triangle pattern that has lasted for years and is now challenging the key resistance at $3.55 (the peak of the 2018 rally).

If it breaks above $3.55: it is expected to open up upward space to $4.41, and even $5.68.

Catalyst: If the XRP ETF is approved and whales shift from selling to accumulating, it will provide momentum for a rise.

Fundamental Support

Even with short-term volatility intensifying, Ripple's layout in the following areas may still support long-term demand:

1. CBDC Partnership

2. Cross-border payment infrastructure

3. Tokenization of Real World Assets (RWA)

Conclusion: XRP at the Crossroads

XRP is currently at a critical decision point:

If the fractal is established → a 45% pullback may come.

If it breaks through 3.55 USD → it is expected to continue the upward trend after the SEC victory.

Traders need to closely monitor resistance levels and volume changes, as this will determine whether XRP is heading towards a deep pullback or starting a new round of offensives.