Spot ETF progress stagnates leading to profit-taking on XRP, Bitcoin hits a new high! The crypto market shows increasing differentiation in trends.

As the broader Crypto Assets market (especially Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana) continues to rise due to expectations of the approval of Spot ETFs, Ripple (XRP) has shown a significant lag. Analysts believe that the SEC's silence on the XRP Spot ETF application is the main reason, compounded by ongoing regulatory uncertainty. Meanwhile, Bitcoin benefits from strong ETF inflows, rising expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, and institutional accumulation, setting new all-time highs. This article analyzes the reasons for XRP's stagnation, key catalysts, and price prospects, and discusses the driving factors behind Bitcoin's record-breaking performance and future outlook.

XRP Spot ETF silence becomes a drag, Ripple's performance lags behind the market

Ripple (XRP) has failed to keep up with the broader rebound of the cryptocurrency market, and the regulators' silence may be the culprit. While Bitcoin (BTC) has reached new highs due to spot ETF demand, Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) have also surged to new highs on ETF expectations, XRP's upward momentum has stalled. Traders can't help but ask: How long can XRP hold its ground before the next major catalyst arrives?

It is worth noting that on August 8 (Friday), XRP briefly surged to $3.3826 due to investors reacting to the joint motion to dismiss submitted in the SEC v. Ripple case. However, XRP later fell back due to profit-taking pressure, experiencing four consecutive days of decline before stabilizing. On August 13 (Wednesday), XRP recorded only a slight rise, in stark contrast to the overall crypto market, which rose by 2.68%, pushing the total market capitalization of crypto assets to a historic high of $4.11 trillion.

Specifically, Bitcoin (BTC) reached a high of $122,970 on mainstream CEX on August 13; ETH rose by 3.39%, approaching its historical high of $4,870 set in 2021; SOL jumped by 5.04%, breaking the $200 mark for the first time in six months.

Regulatory risk clouds remain, XRP Spot ETF approval is uncertain

These three tokens have one thing in common: they all have SEC-approved Spot ETFs. In contrast, the SEC has issued a pause on multi-coin Spot ETFs involving XRP and has remained silent on the pending XRP Spot ETF application. This silence has led to XRP's performance lagging behind the broader market so far in August. Month to date, ETH and SOL have risen by 28% and 17%, respectively, while XRP has only risen by 8%. The funds flowing into ETH and SOL Spot ETFs are key factors driving their price increases.

However, regulatory uncertainty may be another factor causing XRP to lag behind the market. On August 5 (Tuesday), Ripple's Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty wrote to Senator Tim Scott, Chairman of the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, criticizing the Digital Asset Market Structure Bill. Alderoty specifically pointed out that the bill makes crypto assets vulnerable to changes in government and future enforcement actions, stating:

"The bill does not set an objective legal endpoint, leaving market participants reliant on the SEC's discretionary actions to terminate regulation. While we may hope that the current committee will act in good faith, changes in government can bring about shifts in enforcement priorities and interpretations."

XRP remains highly sensitive to U.S. regulatory developments. Unless the XRP Spot ETF is unexpectedly approved, regulatory uncertainty may cause the token to stagnate until Congress's recess ends in September.

XRP Price Outlook: Bank License and Spot ETF are Key to Breakthrough

On August 13, XRP rose slightly by 0.14%, continuing the rebound momentum of 4.31% from the previous trading day, closing at $3.2721. In the short term, the price outlook for XRP depends on several key catalysts, including:

1. XRP Spot ETF related news: The market is closely watching the SEC's shift in attitude towards the XRP Spot ETF application.
2. XRP Obtains Progress on US Chartered Bank License: Obtaining the license will enhance its business legitimacy and expansion capabilities.
3. SWIFT Related Dynamic Updates: The progress of Ripple's competition with SWIFT in the cross-border payment sector.
4. US Crypto Legislation Dynamics: Especially the progress of key legislation such as the "Digital Asset Market Structure Act".

From a technical perspective, if it can effectively break through the key resistance level of $3.3, it is likely to test the $3.5 level. If it can maintain above $3.5, bulls may aim for the historical high of $3.6606 reached on July 18 (mainstream CEX data). However, if it drops below $3.2, it may test the important psychological support level of $3. If $3 is lost, bears may test the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

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Fed rate cut expectations + institutional accumulation, Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high

Just as XRP remains below its historical high, Bitcoin soared to a historic high of $123,731 on August 14 (Thursday) on mainstream CEX. Factors driving BTC's new high include: continued inflows into the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF market, rising demand for Bitcoin as a "digital treasury bond," and an increased expectation of multiple rate cuts by the Fed.

The U.S. employment and CPI reports have reinforced the market's bets on a Fed rate cut in September, boosting demand for risk assets. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectation of a rate cut in September has surged from 60.4% to 100% within a month. More importantly, the market also anticipates that the Fed will further ease monetary policy in the fourth quarter.

On August 13, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset also joined the call, advocating for the Fed to implement more aggressive interest rate cuts, which further fueled market speculation about multiple rate cuts.

At the same time, institutional demand has continued to exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance of Bitcoin. HODL15 Capital reports that institutional purchases have nearly exceeded the new weekly supply:

"It's only Wednesday, and the big coin holders have already bought nearly a week's worth of new supply."

Specifically, this week, institutions such as BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, Metaplanet, Smarter Web, and H100 have purchased 2,948 BTC, while the weekly new supply is only 3,150 coins.

IG.com market analyst Tony Sycamore commented:

"The recent pump of Bitcoin is driven by institutional capital flows and macro tailwinds. Corporations like MicroStrategy and Block Inc. continue to purchase Bitcoin for their treasuries, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen called for the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points in September last night, and hinted that the federal funds rate is 150-175 basis points above a reasonable level, all of which has fueled expectations for policy easing."

The inflow of funds into the Spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States is expected to continue

The sustained demand for Bitcoin Spot ETF is one of the key factors driving Bitcoin's recent breakout. According to data from Farside Investors, the key fund flow trends on August 13 include:

• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) reported a net inflow of $36.6 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) net inflow of $26.7 million.

With the funding flow data for BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) yet to be released, the total daily inflow for the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF has reached $86.9 million. If the IBIT data is also a positive inflow, it is expected to extend the consecutive inflow days to six trading days. The funding flow trend of BTC is crucial for its price direction.

Bitcoin Price Outlook: Focus on Data, Fed and ETF Fund Flows

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Bitcoin rose by 2.28% on August 13, closing at $122,741. Its short-term price movement will depend on the following key events:

• Fed's Monetary Policy Stance: Hawkish or dovish signals conveyed by officials' speeches.
• U.S. Economic Data: Producer Price Index (PPI) and Initial Jobless Claims, etc.
• Legislative Dynamics in Congress: Especially regarding legislative progress on Crypto Assets regulation (such as the "Clarity Act").
• Bitcoin Spot ETF Fund Flows: Continuous inflows are key to supporting the price.

Potential scenario analysis:

• Bearish Scenario: If legislative setbacks occur, the U.S. economic data performs strongly, the Fed releases hawkish signals, and there are outflows from ETFs, these factors combined could push BTC below $120,000 and threaten the 50-day EMA support.
• Bullish Scenario: If the "Clarity Act" makes progress in Congress, U.S. economic data remains weak, the Fed sends dovish signals, and the ETF maintains net inflows, then BTC may target the 125,000 USD level.

Key Market Drivers: Determining Whether XRP and BTC Can Reach New Highs

Traders should closely monitor the following key events to determine whether XRP and Bitcoin can break through the current range and reach new historical highs:

1. XRP Spot ETF related news: Any progress on applications or statements from the SEC are decisive catalysts.
2. US Crypto Legislation News: Specifically, the legislative process of the CLARITY Act.
3. Release of Important Economic Data in the US: Key data affecting the Fed's policy expectations (such as inflation and employment).
4. Fed Officials' Tone in Speeches: Pay attention to the hawkish (tightening bias) or dovish (easing bias) signals they convey.
5. ETF Market Capital Flow: Especially the capital flow trend of Bitcoin Spot ETF is crucial for maintaining the supply and demand balance of BTC.

Conclusion: Currently, the crypto assets market shows significant divergence. XRP is hindered by the stagnation of spot ETF approvals and regulatory clouds, with short-term performance under pressure. A breakthrough requires key positive news (such as ETF approval or bank licenses being issued). In contrast, Bitcoin has strongly broken through historical highs under the resonance of multiple positive factors, including continuous capital inflow into spot ETFs, strong institutional allocation demand, and strong expectations of Fed interest rate cuts. Investors need to closely track regulatory dynamics, macroeconomic data, and ETF fund flows, as these core factors will dominate the future trend of the two leading tokens and determine whether a new round of crypto bull market can be initiated. With market volatility increasing, it is advisable to implement risk management.