Is the BTC pullback coming to an end in this cycle?

Author: Anthony Pompliano, Founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management; Translated by Jinse Caijing

The attention of capital allocators is as short as that of ants, and now they seem to be suffering from short-term memory loss as well. In recent days, Bitcoin has fallen from its historical high of $124,000, sparking debates about whether the Bitcoin cycle has come to an end.

Bitcoin has risen 20% so far this year, or nearly doubled from last year. Is this important? Of course not. The media and market commentators are busy injecting fear and uncertainty into the market. They wonder whether the pullback signals the end of this cycle. They say that the hype around Bitcoin may be unfounded. Perhaps the bearish view on Bitcoin is correct, that this digital currency will never fulfill its promises.

This is all noise.

The data is shocking - the Bitcoin bull market is not over yet.

1. Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Indicator

Let's start with the 30 Bitcoin bull market peak indicators from CoinGlass. We have not yet reached any of them. None of the 30 indicators have reached their peak.

If we have not reached any market peak indicators, it will be hard for the bull market to end.

2. August - September Effect

We also know that during a bull market, Bitcoin often cools down at the end of August and throughout September.

Investor Yannick Maurer wrote: "In the bull markets of 2013, 2017, and 2021, July, August, September, and October were respectively green, green, red, and green. This year is likely to see the same pattern. We might see a pullback in September, followed by a final rise of 20-30% in October and early November."

3. RSI Index

If you are only focused on short-term trends, analyst Frank Fetter ( points out that, according to the Relative Strength Index, Bitcoin currently appears to be in an oversold condition.

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Therefore, the recent price drop is likely a part of the normal fluctuations in the Bitcoin bull market. In the past, during bull markets, we often experienced multiple declines of 30%, but now we typically see only one or two significant drops. Conversely, we still observe price declines of 5-15%, which is healthy. These drops help to clear leverage and prepare for the next round of increases.

4. Four other indicators show a neutral to cooling trend.

You can clearly see this reset in the dashboard created by Frank Fetter. All four indicators show a neutral to cooling trend, which means the market is still in good shape and prices are expected to continue rising in the coming months.

![WFYFaeLUzh6ttShYPllDR6D3Q1hXDeAVZf9LqVyX.png])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-db270e1b0d7b82f88bd8dd6bf0b66f62.webp "7393521"(

5. Long-term BTC holders are very confident

Chris Kuiper from Fidelity provided astonishing data. He wrote: "After the halving in 2024, the Bitcoin ecosystem underwent a significant shift: the growth rate of BTC held for over 10 years (historical supply) has for the first time exceeded the rate of newly mined BTC. An average of 566 BTC is entering long-term holding status each day, while the daily amount of newly added BTC is only 450. This indicates that these long-term holders are very confident."

These on-chain analyses, combined with broader market trends, demonstrate that Bitcoin is maturing. We are now reaching a certain market capitalization and level of market awareness, allowing every market participant to prudently allocate funds to Bitcoin.

Over time, this will reduce volatility.

So, no matter what you hear from friends, family, or the media, I don't believe the Bitcoin bull market is over. It seems that we are witnessing a seasonal cooling of Bitcoin before the final rise in the bull market. October and November should be quite lively, but in the meantime, we must endure some short-term fluctuations. For an asset with a 10-year compound annual growth rate of over 85%, this cost is negligible.